External Habit in a Production Economy: A Model of Asset Prices and Consumption Volatility Risk

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Y. Chen



Author(s):  
Riccardo Colacito ◽  
Mariano M Croce ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Ivan Shaliastovich

Abstract We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country’s output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is larger and in the order of 90%. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings.



2017 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
pp. 765-809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Muir

Abstract I analyze the behavior of risk premia in financial crises, wars, and recessions in an international panel spanning over 140 years and 14 countries. I document that expected returns, or risk premia, increase substantially in financial crises, but not in the other episodes. Asset prices decline in all episodes, but the decline in financial crises is substantially larger than the decline in fundamentals so that expected returns going forward are large. However, drops in consumption and consumption volatility are fairly similar across financial crises and recessions and are largest during wars, so asset pricing models based on aggregate consumption have trouble matching these facts. Comparing crises to “deep” recessions strengthens these findings further. By disentangling financial crises from other bad macroeconomic times, the results suggest that financial crises are particularly important to understanding why risk premia vary. I discuss implications for theory more broadly and discuss both rational and behavioral models that are consistent with the facts. Theories where asset prices are related to the health of the financial sector appear particularly promising.





2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 2589-2615 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLIVER BOGUTH ◽  
LARS-ALEXANDER KUEHN


2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Bonomo ◽  
René Garcia ◽  
Nour Meddahi ◽  
Roméo Tédongap






Author(s):  
Oliver Boguth ◽  
Lars-Alexander Kuehn


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