The effect of credit rating downgrades along the supply chain

Purpose This study aims to examine the information transfer effects of customers’ credit rating downgrades on supplier firms. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors use suppliers’ cumulative abnormal returns around customers’ credit rating downgrade events to identify how shocks to customer credit impact supplier equity prices. The authors also incorporate ordinary least squares and weighted least squares regressions regression analysis of the determinants of supplier market response to customer downgrades. Findings The authors find that customer credit rating downgrades present significant negative shocks to the stock prices of supplier firms. Moreover, the authors show that the information transfer effects are determined by both firm- and industry-level factors, including the market anticipation of downgrades, the strength of the customer–supplier linkage, the industry rivals’ reactions to the downgrades and investor attention. The authors also find that the likelihood that a supplier will receive a rating downgrade is significantly higher following its primary customer firm’s downgrade. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the information transfer effects of credit rating downgrades on primary stakeholders within the supply chain. The authors document that customer–supplier networks have valuable implications for the spillover effect across debt and equity holders. Information about customers’ financial stress is incorporated into suppliers’ equity prices outside of the context of customer bankruptcy.

The Oil Futures and Options Markets in 2020: The “Message from Markets”

This paper considers the response of the equity and oil markets to the onset of crisis conditions after February 15, 2020. Based on derivative markets for equities and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude-oil futures contracts, implied equity and oil volatilities quantify the depth of the crisis and contrast it with the previous ones. The estimated Black [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 167–179] vol skew and Merton [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125–144] option model parameters are able to discern between demand- and supply-side facets. The time when the futures curve is in contango identifies the beginning and, to date, conclusion of the crisis. Using the CAPM, co-movement of oil and equity prices permits computing forecasts of spot oil prices. In considering these events, we recognize the essential role of prices in financial markets: They are conveyors of information, the “Message from Markets,” in which financial theory proves useful, practical and applicable.

Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a reading on current and future macroeconomic conditions that will affect the probability of a change in interest rates, and the reaction of equity prices to news depends on the FOMC sentiment index which is one of the best predictors of this probability.

Role of Islamic Banking during COVID-19 on Political and Financial Events: Application of Impulse Indicator Saturation

This paper attempts to detect the unavoidable impacts of COVID-19 on geopolitical and financial events related to Islamic banking and the finance sector in Pakistan. It considers only those major events that triggered imbalances in the equity prices of selected Islamic banks. Employed here is the GARCH model, used to predict the volatility series using daily data from January 2007 to July 2020. The Impulse Indicator Saturation (IIS) helps to identify the structural breaks due to COVID-19, as well as the effects of political and financial events on the returns and volatility series of Islamic banks. The results indicate that all the events due to COVID-19 are significant. While 19 out of 21 political and financial events impacted the returns and volatility series, there were only 2 political events out of 18 that showed no significant effect on the returns and the volatility series. The state’s and Islamic banks’ policymakers can use these results to build an effective and sustainable financial policy regarding Islamic finance and the banking sector.

Volatility Risk Pass-Through

We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country’s output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is larger and in the order of 90%. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings.

Is zero the safe real rate?

The current economic debate with regards to the secular trend of ever lower, even negative, safe real interest rates is dominated by Keynesian, neoclassical and Austrian explanations. The former (two) argue that the interdependence phenomena of a global savings glut and a secular stagnation cause an oversupply of savings and thus drive down rates. From this position, central bank merely react to market forces. The latter dissent and argue that it was rather the other way around and an asymmetric central bank policy aimed at propping up equity prices led to the secular stagnation now quoted for its justification. In contrast, from the perspective of a critique of ideology, safe real rates where neither driven down by market forces nor central banks but by the weight of being not reasonably safe but riskless. Specifically, I argue that by equating the riskless return with the short-term interest rate, Black and Scholes (1973) state a tautology and imply that both rates shall be zero. In the subsequent inquiry, I show that this argument allows for a neat narration of the economic history of the neoliberal age. Furthermore, I explain why under current conditions ultra low interest rates fail to translate into inflation.

Early COVID-19 policy response on healthcare equity prices

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the implementation of the short selling ban policy imposed by the Italian stock exchange on health-care stock prices, as a tool to mitigate COVID-19 price effects. Important contributions are in terms of assessing the effect of the temporary short selling ban on restricted health-care stocks; the effect of COVID-19 cases and crude oil price volatility onto health-care stocks; and whether COVID-19 resulted in a change in the risk and average stock price of health-care stocks. Design/methodology/approach The methodology involves impulse responses to capture the shock of the short selling ban onto health-care stocks, and Markov switching regimes to capture the effect of COVID-19 onto the risk and prices in the health-care industry. Daily data from 9 November 2018 till 23 December 2020 is used. Findings Findings suggest there were significant changes in average prices in health-care technology and health-care services stocks before, during and after the short selling ban. Shocks to the number of COVID-19 cases and crude oil price volatility impacted health-care stocks but lasted only for a few days. While daily changes in the number of COVID-19 cases impacted some health-care stocks in the presence of a two-state Markov regime, insignificant coefficients and relatively low duration suggest that the short selling policy did not significantly change the average price and risk in health-care stocks to explain a two-state regime in the health-care industry. Research limitations/implications Insignificant coefficients in a two-state Markov regime reinforce that short-selling policies have a short-lasting effect onto health-care equity prices. The findings are limited by the duration of the short selling policy, the pandemic event and the health-care industry. Originality/value This is the first study to look at the impact of early COVID-19 and short selling ban policy on health-care stocks.

The Influence of Oil Prices on Equity Returns of Canadian Energy Firms

Using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2018, this paper examines how the Canadian oil and gas industry and individual firms’ equity prices react to oil price fluctuations, which are measured by the traditional West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and the Canada-specific Western Canadian Select (WCS) benchmark. The findings provide support for the view that oil price movements are an important factor in explaining the equity returns of the overall industry and for many individual oil and gas firms in Canada. Both WTI and WCS measures provide statistically significant evidence, but the results support that WTI may still be the more relevant measure for Canadian-based firms. We also find that the spread between WTI and WCS has a minimal impact on the firms’ equity returns. Additional tests for asymmetric impacts of oil price movements on Canadian oil and gas equity returns have provided little evidence, whereas time-varying impacts are found for a handful of firms. The empirical findings predicated on the holistic view of the impacts of oil price fluctuations on equity market returns will enhance investor confidence and strengthen the Canadian economy.