Financial Stability and Economic Growth: Evidence from North Cyprus

Given the importance of public debt for financial stability and economic progress, this article examines the unstable economic growth rate in Northern Cyprus. The causal relationships between public debt, public expenditures, total capital, consumption, investment, employment, net exports, and GDP growth rate are questioned. This study used annual time series data between 1980 and 2018 obtained from the State Planning Organization. An unrestricted VAR model was used to test the causal relationship of these variables. Findings show that public debt has no direct effect on GDP. However, it indirectly affects the total capital and government expenditures as an independent variable. Except for public debt, all other variables have a value that will affect net exports. Unlike other studies, employment as an independent variable has the value of influencing GDP, total capital, consumption, government expenditures, and net exports as dependent variables. It has been observed that consumption, investment, and government expenditure coefficients have values that will affect GDP. Insufficient control of government practices, the North Cyprus government's inefficient plans to encourage domestic production, insufficient enforcement power of domestic producers, as well as increased capital outflows, increased government debt, and budget deficit are not sustainable models.

Infrastructure and Economic Growth

I estimate the effect that growth in countries’ GDP per capita has on the growth rate of infrastructure. In order to extract exogenous variation in GDP per capita growth, I use the growth of the international oil price multiplied with countries’ GDP shares of oil net-exports as an instrumental variable. My instrumental variables estimates show that, for both democracies and autocracies, GDP per capita growth has a significant positive effect on infrastructure growth. This effect is significantly smaller in anocracies—so much so that, in anocracies, GDP per capita growth has no significant effect on the growth rate of infrastructure.

Quantitative analyzes of virtual water net exports under the impacts of natural changes and human activities in the last 20 years in Shandong Province, China

Virtual water trade in a region is affected by both nature and humans. To study the contributions of human activities to virtual water trade quantitatively, an innovative method of quantitative comparison and analysis is put forward. At first, the climates are adjusted into a unified standard. Then the impacts of increment and reduction of foreign water are studied. Additionally, the impacts of water management policy are studied according to the comparable water quotas. Results show that with the development of economy, an N-shaped trend and inverted U-shaped trend exist with regard to the net exports of agricultural and industrial virtual water, respectively. The net imports of virtual water have beneficial effects to the water environments of water deficient areas, while the net exports have negative effects. In 1997, the net exports of agricultural and industrial virtual water reduced by 20.13% and 49.67% respectively due to the cut-off of Yellow River channel compared with that under the average Yellow River water diversion. In 2017, they increased by 1.32% and 41.99% respectively because of the South-to-North Water Transfer project and reduced by 10.01% and 20.39% respectively under the effects of the most stringent water management policy.

Volatility Risk Pass-Through

We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country’s output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is larger and in the order of 90%. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings.

Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi dan Net Ekspor Indonesia Menggunakan Model Simultan

This study aims to analyze 1) the effect of household consumption, investment, government spending and net exports on Indonesia's economic growth, 2) the effect of interest rates, inflation and economic growth on investment, 3) the effect of inflation and foreign income on Indonesia's net exports. The type of data used is quarterly secondary data from 2015-2020. Sources of data obtained from BPS, BI and Bappenas. This research uses simultaneous equation model analysis in the form of two stage least square (2SLS), identification test and reduce form. The results of this study are 1). household consumption, investment, and net exports have a significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth. However, government spending has no significant effect on economic growth. 2). interest rates and economic growth have a significant effect on investment. However, the inflation rate has no significant effect on investment. 3) the exchange rate has a significant effect on net exports but foreign income has no significant effect. Household consumption is the largest supporting sector for economic growth of 70% which is of great concern. So that a policy is needed to restore the economy by stimulating people's purchasing power.

Examining Export-Led Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and China

Export-led growth is an economic hypothesis that links the level of a nation’s exports to economic growth in that country. Seen primarily as a model for low-income, developing nations to accelerate convergence as China began to do in the 1980s, the hypothesis theoretically still stands for developed nations. However, there exists significant discussion and doubt as to the strength and causality of the relationship between exports and growth, especially after a nation has industrialized and established itself as a major exporter. This paper examines and compares the effect of exports, imports, and net exports on economic growth for a set of low-income nations (Sub-Saharan Africa) and a country that has already undergone a significant economic transformation (China, at the provincial level). I regress the share of exports, imports, and net exports against GDP growth for Sub-Saharan African nations and Chinese provinces, and use instrumental variables to check for robustness. I find that while in Sub-Saharan Africa the share of exports and net exports exhibit a positive relationship with economic growth, higher shares of exports and net exports in China are associated with lower economic growth. This suggests that export-led growth is valid in Sub-Saharan Africa, but no longer is in China. I pose two potential explanations for this outcome in China: inefficient trade with low-income nations or decreasing trade with high-income nations. Regressions of China’s exports to these two types of economies over time indicate that the latter is the primary cause of the distinction in the effect of exports.

The Role of Technology and Investment in the Business Sector in Driving Net Exports and Economic Growth

This study examines the Role of Technology and Infrastructure in Driving Net Exports and Economic Growth. This study uses secondary data from world banks and processed regression using the moving average autoregression method. We find that when the development of supporting infrastructure for the economy is integrated with technology, there is a very large amount of technology imports so that net exports decline when this is done and economic growth occurs through the consumption process in the domestic market so that technology and economic infrastructure are positively related. However, technology is negatively related to the gross domestic product because the export push occurs but it is not comparable to technology imports so that the net export becomes negative.

Technology Development, Net Exports and National Productivity

This study aims to understand the development of technology, net exports, and national productivity. This study uses secondary data from world banks and processed regression using the moving average autoregression method. We find that technology is positively related to gross domestic product and net exports is negatively related to the gross domestic product which is an indicator of national productivity. Based on the estimation, technology development or technology investment in Indonesia tends to be import-based so that it suppresses net exports and results in a decrease in net exports in line with technology development, even though technology investment in the form of high technology development encourages economic growth.

The Role of Technology and Investment in the Business Sector in Driving Net Exports and Economic Growth

This study examines the role of technology and investment in the business sector in driving net exports and economic growth. This study uses secondary data from world banks to process regression using the moving average autoregression method. When the government focuses on directing the export-oriented Indonesian economy by increasing investment in the business sector and investment in the development of supporting technology for an export-oriented economy will result in integration between the business, technology and international trade sectors that will encourage net exports and export-based economic growth with a fluctuating economic growth trend following global economic conditions. However, despite this economic growth is positive.