scholarly journals Studies on the Seasonal Weather Forecasting

1951 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Weather

scholarly journals Designing Multimodel Applications with Surrogate Forecast Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (6) ◽  
pp. 2233-2249
Author(s):  
Leonard A. Smith ◽  
Hailiang Du ◽  
Sarah Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Mathematical System ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Abstract Probabilistic forecasting is common in a wide variety of fields including geoscience, social science, and finance. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple nonlinear forecast systems best “combined”? Assuming stationarity, in the limit of a very large forecast–outcome archive, each model-based probability density function can be weighted to form a “multimodel forecast” that will, in expectation, provide at least as much information as the most informative single model forecast system. If one of the forecast systems yields a probability distribution that reflects the distribution from which the outcome will be drawn, Bayesian model averaging will identify this forecast system as the preferred system in the limit as the number of forecast–outcome pairs goes to infinity. In many applications, like those of seasonal weather forecasting, data are precious; the archive is often limited to fewer than 26 entries. In addition, no perfect model is in hand. It is shown that in this case forming a single “multimodel probabilistic forecast” can be expected to prove misleading. These issues are investigated in the surrogate model (here a forecast system) regime, where using probabilistic forecasts of a simple mathematical system allows many limiting behaviors of forecast systems to be quantified and compared with those under more realistic conditions.

scholarly journals Studies on the Seasonal Weather Forecasting (V, c)

1956 ◽  
Vol 6 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 228-233
Author(s):  
M. Hirose ◽  
M. Okuta ◽  
T. Asakura
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Weather

NOTE ON PROGRESS OF SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTING IN CALIFORNIA

1930 ◽  
Vol 11 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 149-151
Author(s):  
Arthur F. Gorton ◽  
Agnes G. Partridge
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Weather

scholarly journals Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

1980 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Abarbanel ◽  
H. Foley ◽  
G. MacDonald ◽  
O. Rothaus ◽  
M. Rudermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Weather

The Meteorology of India

1934 ◽  
Vol 38 (284) ◽  
pp. 705-724
Author(s):  
J. H. Field
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Comprehensive Account ◽  
Interesting Paper ◽  
Seasonal Weather

In an interesting paper on the meteorology of India read before the Society in 1925, Sir Gilbert Walker gave a comprehensive account of the main elements of climate which affect the industrial and social well-being of the country, and dealt with the great question of seasonal weather forecasting, on which he has become the chief authority. I propose to-day to take up some of the newer means of dealing with Indian problems, and to add the consideration of a fresh item, the safeguarding of international aviation.

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