Probabilistic Forecast of the Extended Range Heatwave Over Eastern China

Several probabilistic forecast methods for heatwave (HW) in extended-range scales over China are constructed using four models (ECMWF, CMA, UKMO, and NCEP) from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database. The methods include four single-model ensembles (SME; ECMWF, CMA, UKMO, and NCEP), multi-model ensemble (MME), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The construction and verification of reforecasts are implemented by a defined heat wave index (HWI) which is not only able to reflect the actual occurrence of heatwaves, but also to facilitate forecast and verification. The performance is measured by traditional verification method at each grid point of the 105°E to 132°E; 20°N to 45°N domain for the July, August, and September (JAS) of 1999–2010. For deterministic evaluations of HWI forecast, BMA shows a better pattern correlation coefficient than SME and MME and comparable equitable threat score (ETS) with ECMWF and MME. The good performance of ECMWF and MME take advantage of setting the percentile thresholds for forecasting HW. For the probabilistic forecast, the Brier score of BMA is comparable (superior) to that of MME and ECMWF at short (long) lead-time. BMA also demonstrates an improvement on the reliability of probabilistic forecast, indicating that BMA method is a useful tool for an extended-range forecast of HW. Meanwhile, in the real-time extended-range probabilistic forecast, the beginning date, end date, and probability of HW event can be predicted by the HWI probabilistic forecast of BMA.

Investigating environmental regulation effects on technological innovation: A meta-regression analysis

The relationship between environmental regulation (ER) and any associated innovative technologies has been studied in the previous decades; however, the estimated results have varied with no obvious consensus. To analyse what drives the different estimates in existing studies, we investigated the regulation–innovation relationship through a meta-analysis of 1276 estimates reported in 49 studies. In our analysis, 41 aspects of study design were controlled, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and frequentist model averaging (FMA) methods were used to address model uncertainty problems. Our results suggested that controlling resources and ignoring endogeneity problems both played robust and methodical roles in explaining the differences in individual study results. Additionally, our results also indicated that five factors (middle year, publication year, usage of province-level data, linear model function, and the difference-in-differences (DID) model) consistently explained the differences in the reported estimates. We found that the ER had almost zero influence on technical innovation; more than one flexible policy instrument was required to trigger innovative activities among firms and sectors.

Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging

Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses to pension schemes and aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but there are other dimensions of welfare restructuring in the politics of pension reforms, including recalibration, rationalization, and blame avoidance for unpopular policies that involve retrenchments. This paper examines the policy designs and implications of linking entry pensions to life expectancy developments through sustainability factors or life expectancy coefficients in Finland, Portugal, and Spain. To address conceptual and specification uncertainty in policymaking, we propose and apply a Bayesian model averaging approach to stochastic mortality modeling and life expectancy computation. The results show that: (i) sustainability factors will generate substantial pension entitlement reductions in the three countries analyzed; (ii) the magnitude of the pension losses depends on the factor design; (iii) to offset pension cuts and safeguard pension adequacy, individuals will have to prolong their working lives significantly; (iv) factor designs considering cohort longevity markers would have generated higher pension cuts in countries with increasing life expectancy gap.

Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe

This paper investigates the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of British multinational firms in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association members across 2009–2019 using Bayesian model averaging. We find evidence that supports the existence and dynamic behavior of the East–West structure of FDI between three groups of countries: core-EU, Central and Eastern European economies (CEE), and the Nordics. Further, we document the importance of relative market size, urbanization, the rule of law in attaining horizontal FDI in the core-EU economies. In turn, infrastructure spending and enhanced political stability are the most important drivers for FDI in CEE (post-2000 accession). Finally, our results highlight the negative effects of the Eurozone crisis and Brexit anticipation on British OFDI activity in the region. The findings remain robust when accounting for potential MNE profit shifting to partners such as Ireland, Luxembourg, and alike.