Construction of confidence intervals for extreme rainfall quantiles

Empirical research in marketing often is, at least in parts, exploratory. The goal of exploratory research, by definition, extends beyond the empirical calibration of parameters in well established models and includes the empirical assessment of different model specifications. In this context researchers often rely on the statistical information about parameters in a given model to learn about likely model structures. An example is the search for the 'true' set of covariates in a regression model based on confidence intervals of regression coefficients. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and compare different measures of statistical information about model parameters in the context of a generalized linear model: classical confidence intervals, bootstrapped confidence intervals, and Bayesian posterior credible intervals from a model that adapts its dimensionality as a function of the information in the data. I find that inference from the adaptive Bayesian model dominates that based on classical and bootstrapped intervals in a given model.

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Development of Unit Commitment Model Considering Confidence Intervals of Photovoltaics Forecast and Analysis of a Large Scale Power System

IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy ◽

10.1541/ieejpes.136.484 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 136 (5) ◽

pp. 484-496 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yusuke Udagawa ◽

Kazuhiko Ogimoto ◽

Takashi Oozeki ◽

Hideaki Ohtake ◽

Takashi Ikegami ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Power System ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Large Scale ◽

Unit Commitment

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The Influence of Geographical Factors on Extreme Rainfalls in Lampung Province

Journal of Engineering and Scientific Research ◽

10.23960/jesr.v1i1.7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 33

Author(s):

M Welly

Keyword(s):

Geographical Location ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Design Flood ◽

Extreme Rainfall Events ◽

Rainfall Events ◽

Ungauged Basin ◽

Flood Discharge ◽

Design Rainfall ◽

Geographical Factors

Many people in Indonesia calculate design rainfall before calculating the design flooddischarge. The design rainfall with a certain return period will eventually be convertedinto a design flood discharge by combining it with the characteristics of the watershed.However, the lack of a network of rainfall recording stations makes many areas that arenot hydrologically measured (ungauged basin), so it is quite difficult to know thecharacteristics of rain in the area concerned. This study aims to analyze thecharacteristics of design rainfall in Lampung Province. The focus of the analysis is toinvestigate whether geographical factors influence the design rainfall that occurs in theparticular area. The data used in this study is daily rainfall data from 15 rainfallrecording stations spread in Lampung Province. The method of frequency analysis usedin this study is the Gumbel method. The research shows that the geographical location ofan area does not have significant effect on extreme rainfall events. The effect of risingearth temperatures due to natural exploitation by humans tends to be stronger as a causeof extreme events such as extreme rainfall.Keywords: Influence, geographical, factors, extreme, rainfall.

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Trend of Extreme Precipitations Indices in West-central Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Lobo Watershed

European Journal of Engineering Research and Science ◽

10.24018/ejers.2020.5.10.2195 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. 1281-1287

Author(s):

F. B. Allechy ◽

M. Youan Ta ◽

V. H. N’Guessan Bi ◽

F. A. Yapi ◽

A. B. Koné ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cote D'ivoire ◽

Côte D’Ivoire ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Cote D’Ivoire ◽

West Central ◽

Côte D'ivoire ◽

Northern Half ◽

Agricultural Potential ◽

Annual Total

The Lobo watershed located in the west-central part of Côte d'Ivoire is an area with high agricultural potential, influenced by climate variations and changes that reduce crop yields. The objective of this study is to analyse trends in ETCCDI extreme rainfall indices from rainfall data from 1984 to 2013 using ClimPACT2 software. This study shows that the trend of the indices: number of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of rainy days (R1mm) and the cumulative annual total rainfall (PRCPTOT) is decreasing. On the other hand, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is on the rise. In general, the whole basin has experienced a decrease in rainfall as well as wet sequences and an increase in dry sequences. These different trends observed in this study are more pronounced in the northern half of the watershed.

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