scholarly journals Parameter Estimation of Autoregressive-Exogenous and Autoregressive Models Subject to Missing Data Using Expectation Maximization

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Horner ◽  
Shamim N. Pakzad ◽  
Nur Sila Gulgec
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-272
Author(s):  
Paul Kimani Kinyanjui ◽  
Cox Lwaka Tamba ◽  
Luke Akong’o Orawo ◽  
Justin Obwoge Okenye

Many researchers encounter the missing data problem. The phenomenon may be occasioned by data omission, non-response, death of respondents, recording errors, among others. It is important to find an appropriate data imputation technique to fill in the missing positions. In this study, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and two of its stochastic variants, stochastic EM (SEM) and Monte Carlo EM (MCEM), are employed in missing data imputation and parameter estimation in multivariate t distribution with unknown degrees of freedom. The imputation efficiencies of the three methods are then compared using mean square error (MSE) criterion. SEM yields the lowest MSE, making it the most efficient method in data imputation when the data assumes the multivariate t distribution. The algorithm’s stochastic nature enables it to avoid local saddle points and achieve global maxima; ultimately increasing its efficiency. The EM and MCEM techniques yield almost similar results. Large sample draws in the MCEM’s E-step yield more or less the same results as the deterministic EM. In parameter estimation, it is observed that the parameter estimates for EM and MCEM are relatively close to the simulated data’s maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. This is not the case in SEM, owing to the random nature of the algorithm.


1994 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 163-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.J. Adams ◽  
P. Albertos ◽  
G.C. Goodwin ◽  
A.J. Isaksson

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Goel ◽  
Meena Tushir

Purpose In real-world decision-making, high accuracy data analysis is essential in a ubiquitous environment. However, we encounter missing data while collecting user-related data information because of various privacy concerns on account of a user. This paper aims to deal with incomplete data for fuzzy model identification, a new method of parameter estimation of a Takagi–Sugeno model in the presence of missing features. Design/methodology/approach In this work, authors proposed a three-fold approach for fuzzy model identification in which imputation-based linear interpolation technique is used to estimate missing features of the data, and then fuzzy c-means clustering is used for determining optimal number of rules and for the determination of parameters of membership functions of the fuzzy model. Finally, the optimization of the all antecedent and consequent parameters along with the width of the antecedent (Gaussian) membership function is done by gradient descent algorithm based on the minimization of root mean square error. Findings The proposed method is tested on two well-known simulation examples as well as on a real data set, and the performance is compared with some traditional methods. The result analysis and statistical analysis show that the proposed model has achieved a considerable improvement in accuracy in the presence of varying degree of data incompleteness. Originality/value The proposed method works well for fuzzy model identification method, a new method of parameter estimation of a Takagi–Sugeno model in the presence of missing features with varying degree of missing data as compared to some well-known methods.


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