Towards Understanding the Volatility of Housing Prices and Exploring the Tourism Demand Impact

Using an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (EGARCH), the volatile nature of residential property prices in New Zealand is examined. The model investigates the extent to which macroeconomic fundamentals and a combined population shift/visitor factor called "tourism" impact residential property values and capture variations in volatility across different regions. We find that fundamentals have different impacts across regional property markets. In line with the literature, the bigger metropolitan regions like Auckland and Christchurch are more sensitive to macroeconomic factors than smaller regions. Additionally, we find house price volatility in southern regions is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations more than northern areas. Novel to the literature, we discover that "tourism" has significant impact on house price volatility as well, particularly in popular touristic areas. These results imply that to better understand the determinants of house price volatility and mitigate its effects, policy makers should consider a coordinated approach, taking a regional perspective and the interaction of several variables into account.

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Study on Commodity Residential House Price Volatility of the Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration Using Spatial Econometric Analysis

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.638-640.2436 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 638-640 ◽

pp. 2436-2441

Author(s):

Feng Lan ◽

Ying Tian

Keyword(s):

Housing Prices ◽

House Price ◽

Great Influence ◽

Housing Price ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Urban Housing ◽

Urban Agglomeration ◽

Spatial Econometric ◽

Residential House ◽

House Price Volatility

This paper was based on the theory of spatial econometric model. It selected the panel datas of the guanzhong urban agglomeration of five core cities from 1998 to 2012, and inspected the commodity residential house price if there is a space dependency relationship between the two cities. On the basis to analyze the main factors influencing the commodity residential house price volatility and research on the influence of the housing price direction. Results show that the sample is significant spatial correlation between urban housing prices. Xi 'an have great influence on regional cities housing price. The urban population, household disposable income, land acquisition costs, sales area are the main influence factors affecting housing price volatility.

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Determinants of house price volatility in Namibia

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis ◽

10.1108/ijhma-10-2018-0077 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 807-823 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Teresia Kaulihowa ◽

Katrina Kamati

Keyword(s):

House Prices ◽

Housing Prices ◽

House Price ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Mortgage Loans ◽

Causal Relations ◽

Content Type ◽

House Price Volatility ◽

Macroeconomic Determinants

Purpose This paper aims to test the volatility and analyses the macroeconomic determinants of house price volatility in Namibia over the period 2007 Quarter 1 to 2017 Quarter 2. It further explores the causal relations between house price volatility and its determinants. Design/methodology/approach The study used autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models to test for volatility. The vector error correction model was used to analyse the determinants and causal relations. Findings The results support the hypothesis that house prices in Namibia exhibits persistent volatility. It was further established that past period volatility’ GDP and mortgage loans are the key determinants of house price volatility. Additionally’ there exists unidirectional causality from GDP and mortgage loans to house price volatility. Practical implications Policy implications emanating from the study implies that macroeconomic fundamentals should be monitored closely to mitigate the issues of house price volatility. Originality/value The study is the first of its kind in Namibia to address the pertinent issues of ever increasing housing prices.

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Commodity Residential House Price Volatility Spillover Effects of Study — To Zhengzhou City Circle as an Example

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.838-841.2981 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 838-841 ◽

pp. 2981-2984

Author(s):

Feng Lan ◽

Rui Rui Zhang

Keyword(s):

Housing Prices ◽

House Price ◽

Spillover Effect ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Spillover Effects ◽

Volatility Spillover ◽

Causality Test ◽

Obvious Effect ◽

Residential House ◽

House Price Volatility

With the overall urban scale and the constant improvement of the level of economic development and regional urban cluster gradually formed, the interactive relationship between urban residential market is increasingly significant.Based on building the VAR model, this paper using Johansen cointegration relationship test, Granger causality test based on VEC model and variance decomposition method of the nine cities of zhengzhou city circle commodity residential house price volatility spillover effect carries on the empirical analysis, the results showed that: each city commodity housing prices keep long-term stable equilibrium relationship between, and has obvious effect, the interaction of zhengzhou and luoyang to other urban commodity residential house price fluctuation has significant guiding role.

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