Location-Centered House Price Prediction: A Multi-Task Learning Approach

Accurate house prediction is of great significance to various real estate stakeholders such as house owners, buyers, and investors. We propose a location-centered prediction framework that differs from existing work in terms of data profiling and prediction model. Regarding data profiling, we make an important observation as follows – besides the in-house features such as floor area, the location plays a critical role in house price prediction. Unfortunately, existing work either overlooked it or had a coarse grained measurement of locations. Thereby, we define and capture a fine-grained location profile powered by a diverse range of location data sources, including transportation profile, education profile, suburb profile based on census data, and facility profile. Regarding the choice of prediction model, we observe that a variety of approaches either consider the entire data for modeling, or split the entire house data and model each partition independently. However, such modeling ignores the relatedness among partitions, and for all prediction scenarios, there may not be sufficient training samples per partition for the latter approach. We address this problem by conducting a careful study of exploiting the Multi-Task Learning (MTL) model. Specifically, we map the strategies for splitting the entire house data to the ways the tasks are defined in MTL, and select specific MTL-based methods with different regularization terms to capture and exploit the relatedness among tasks. Based on real-world house transaction data collected in Melbourne, Australia, we design extensive experimental evaluations, and the results indicate a significant superiority of MTL-based methods over state-of-the-art approaches. Meanwhile, we conduct an in-depth analysis on the impact of task definitions and method selections in MTL on the prediction performance, and demonstrate that the impact of task definitions on prediction performance far exceeds that of method selections.

UK house price momentum will slow modestly in 2022

Headline UNITED KINGDOM: House price momentum to slow modestly

House price revival may drag on Israel’s economy

Significance Short-term government policies have consistently failed to contain price increases, much less lower them. As a result, sharply rising housing prices over more than a decade have raised costs for many families. Impacts The growing need to meet climate change-related targets may slow the infrastructure development needed to expand housing supply. Housing affordability could re-emerge as a major political issue. The post-pandemic era may spur changes to the housing market, easing price pressures in urban areas that experienced the sharpest increases.

An Improved Model for House Price/Land Price Prediction using Deep Learning

House price predictions are a crucial reflection of the economy; sometimes house prices include the land prices and demand of the place and location. The house price and land price are two different things, but both are important for both buyers and sellers. This chapter introduced the combination of ML and DL approaches to predict the house price with the updated regression algorithm. The algorithm named as ‘Mopuri algorithm' reads the 14 attributes like crime rate, population density, rooms, etc. and produces the cost estimation result as a prediction. The proposed model accurately estimates the worth of the house as per the given features. The results of the model tested with the different datasets existing in the Kaggle data source using Python libraries with the Jupyter platform and continuation of the model using the Android OS to develop the smart home web-based application.

Analyzing Multiscale Spatial Relationships between the House Price and Visual Environment Factors

House price is closely associated with the development of the national economy and people’s daily life. Understanding the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the house price is of great practical significance. Although a lot of attention has been paid to modeling the house price from structure and location attributes, limited work has considered the impact of visual attributes. Intuitively, a better visual environment may raise the surrounding house price. When aggregating multiple factors that influence house price, the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) provides a suitable solution. Specifically, the MGWR assigns each factor a bandwidth to model the spatial heterogeneity, e.g., a factor may have different influences at different places. In this paper, we introduce the visual environment factors into the MGWR method. In detail, we extract ten visual elements, e.g., sky, vegetation, road, from the Baidu street view (BSV) images, using a deep learning framework. We further define six visual environment factors to investigate their influence on house price. Based on the data from two representative Chinese cities, i.e., Beijing and Chongqing, we reveal the influence degree and spatial scale difference of six visual indexes on the house price in two cities. Results show that: (1) the influence intensity of our proposed six visual environment factors on the house price in different regions of the city can be identified, and the green view index (GVI) is the most important visual environmental factor; and (2) the influence of these view indexes changes significantly or even reversely depends on different areas.

The performance of the New Zealand economy: Savings and housing

<p>Recent policy changes and looming pressures in New Zealand have the potential to significantly impact the living standards of those who will enter retirement in the coming decades. In particular, a voluntary subsidised savings scheme known as KiwiSaver was introduced in 2007. Population ageing will increase the costs associated with New Zealand Superannuation (NZS), a universal government-funded pension paid for out of general taxation. In addition, rapid house price growth has made home ownership difficult for many, yet home ownership is likely to improve the living standards of retirees. These developments raise a number of important policy questions, which this thesis addresses. A variety of empirical approaches are employed, ranging from descriptive analysis to the application of regression techniques, including those designed to address specific econometric problems such as sample selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Data is primarily sourced from longitudinal and cross-sectional surveys. However, when required this is supplemented with house price, life expectancy and administrative data. Chapters 2 and 3 of the thesis provide an evaluation of the performance of KiwiSaver, a subsidised voluntary savings scheme aimed at increasing the retirement wealth of a target population. The first of these chapters uses data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2010 and designed specifically for the purpose of evaluating KiwiSaver. Four key dimensions of performance are assessed using a variety of empirical techniques. Results suggest that only one-third of contributions to KiwiSaver represent additional savings. Regression analysis, designed to account for sample selection bias due to survey routing, finds no relationship between KiwiSaver membership and expected retirement income outcomes. Measures of target effectiveness and leakage suggest that KiwiSaver has been only modestly successful in reaching its target population and that leakage to the non-target population was high, at 93%. Finally, the scheme’s possible effect on national saving was examined, accounting for its costs, membership projections, government behaviour and additional savings by members. KiwiSaver’s effect on net national saving appears limited at best. Chapter 3 analysis the extent to which membership of KiwiSaver has been associated with greater accumulations of net worth. The chapter uses two linked sources of data, Statistics New Zealand’s longitudinal Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) and administrative data from the Inland Revenue Department on KiwiSaver membership. These data cover the period 2002 to 2010. Two approaches are employed to measure KiwiSaver’s impact, difference-in-differences (where the outcomes of interest are changes in net worth) and various panel regression techniques. Results appear consistent with those of Chapter 2. That is, neither approach suggests KiwiSaver membership has been associated with any positive effect on the accumulation of net worth. Chapter 4 examines the implications for national savings of three retirement income policy options designed to improve the fiscal sustainability of NZS. These options include lifting the age of eligibility for NZS by two years, lowering the rate of indexation of NZS payments and making private saving compulsory then using those accumulations to reduce NZS entitlements. A model is developed that employs population and longevity projections allowing estimation of the contributions that many overlapping age cohorts might make to national savings in response to policy change. Government contributions to national savings, resulting primarily from reduced NZS payments, are also considered. Results suggest that even seemingly modest changes to retirement income policies could lead to substantial cumulative changes in national savings by 2061. However, lifting the age of eligibility for NZS appears able to generate superior improvements in the government’s fiscal position compared to the other two policy options over the medium term. Chapter 5 examines patterns of home ownership and housing affordability across groups and over time, as well as various factors associated with the likelihood of each. The analysis draws on two surveys, the Household Economic Survey (HES) and SoFIE, and covers a period when the median house price in New Zealand increased by over 50%. A model which may be suggestive of whether or not an individual or couple is likely to find home-ownership affordable is applied. This model incorporates information relating to four important influences on affordability, in particular, income, net worth, house prices, and the structure of mortgage contracts (including the interest rate and mortgage term). While housing affordability was high for some groups during at least part of the period of analysis, for other groups affordability was persistently low, such as for singles and those on relatively low incomes. However, for nearly all groups examined housing affordability declined substantially over the period. The final analytical chapter of the thesis extends the analysis of Chapter 5 to examine the potential benefits to housing affordability of the introduction of price level adjusted mortgages (PLAMs). These require lower repayments during the early years of a mortgage and higher repayments during latter years as compared to conventional mortgages. The analysis uses SoFIE and the model of housing affordability from Chapter 5, but with one important difference, a price level adjusted mortgage is assumed under various rates of inflation. Results are then compared to those derived from the housing affordability model under the assumption of a conventional mortgage. Findings suggest that PLAMs could indeed significantly improve housing affordability for prospective homeowners if they were available.</p>

The performance of the New Zealand economy: Savings and housing

<p>Recent policy changes and looming pressures in New Zealand have the potential to significantly impact the living standards of those who will enter retirement in the coming decades. In particular, a voluntary subsidised savings scheme known as KiwiSaver was introduced in 2007. Population ageing will increase the costs associated with New Zealand Superannuation (NZS), a universal government-funded pension paid for out of general taxation. In addition, rapid house price growth has made home ownership difficult for many, yet home ownership is likely to improve the living standards of retirees. These developments raise a number of important policy questions, which this thesis addresses. A variety of empirical approaches are employed, ranging from descriptive analysis to the application of regression techniques, including those designed to address specific econometric problems such as sample selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Data is primarily sourced from longitudinal and cross-sectional surveys. However, when required this is supplemented with house price, life expectancy and administrative data. Chapters 2 and 3 of the thesis provide an evaluation of the performance of KiwiSaver, a subsidised voluntary savings scheme aimed at increasing the retirement wealth of a target population. The first of these chapters uses data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2010 and designed specifically for the purpose of evaluating KiwiSaver. Four key dimensions of performance are assessed using a variety of empirical techniques. Results suggest that only one-third of contributions to KiwiSaver represent additional savings. Regression analysis, designed to account for sample selection bias due to survey routing, finds no relationship between KiwiSaver membership and expected retirement income outcomes. Measures of target effectiveness and leakage suggest that KiwiSaver has been only modestly successful in reaching its target population and that leakage to the non-target population was high, at 93%. Finally, the scheme’s possible effect on national saving was examined, accounting for its costs, membership projections, government behaviour and additional savings by members. KiwiSaver’s effect on net national saving appears limited at best. Chapter 3 analysis the extent to which membership of KiwiSaver has been associated with greater accumulations of net worth. The chapter uses two linked sources of data, Statistics New Zealand’s longitudinal Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) and administrative data from the Inland Revenue Department on KiwiSaver membership. These data cover the period 2002 to 2010. Two approaches are employed to measure KiwiSaver’s impact, difference-in-differences (where the outcomes of interest are changes in net worth) and various panel regression techniques. Results appear consistent with those of Chapter 2. That is, neither approach suggests KiwiSaver membership has been associated with any positive effect on the accumulation of net worth. Chapter 4 examines the implications for national savings of three retirement income policy options designed to improve the fiscal sustainability of NZS. These options include lifting the age of eligibility for NZS by two years, lowering the rate of indexation of NZS payments and making private saving compulsory then using those accumulations to reduce NZS entitlements. A model is developed that employs population and longevity projections allowing estimation of the contributions that many overlapping age cohorts might make to national savings in response to policy change. Government contributions to national savings, resulting primarily from reduced NZS payments, are also considered. Results suggest that even seemingly modest changes to retirement income policies could lead to substantial cumulative changes in national savings by 2061. However, lifting the age of eligibility for NZS appears able to generate superior improvements in the government’s fiscal position compared to the other two policy options over the medium term. Chapter 5 examines patterns of home ownership and housing affordability across groups and over time, as well as various factors associated with the likelihood of each. The analysis draws on two surveys, the Household Economic Survey (HES) and SoFIE, and covers a period when the median house price in New Zealand increased by over 50%. A model which may be suggestive of whether or not an individual or couple is likely to find home-ownership affordable is applied. This model incorporates information relating to four important influences on affordability, in particular, income, net worth, house prices, and the structure of mortgage contracts (including the interest rate and mortgage term). While housing affordability was high for some groups during at least part of the period of analysis, for other groups affordability was persistently low, such as for singles and those on relatively low incomes. However, for nearly all groups examined housing affordability declined substantially over the period. The final analytical chapter of the thesis extends the analysis of Chapter 5 to examine the potential benefits to housing affordability of the introduction of price level adjusted mortgages (PLAMs). These require lower repayments during the early years of a mortgage and higher repayments during latter years as compared to conventional mortgages. The analysis uses SoFIE and the model of housing affordability from Chapter 5, but with one important difference, a price level adjusted mortgage is assumed under various rates of inflation. Results are then compared to those derived from the housing affordability model under the assumption of a conventional mortgage. Findings suggest that PLAMs could indeed significantly improve housing affordability for prospective homeowners if they were available.</p>

Live Large in Small Spaces

<p>The ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership has become less attainable because of increases in housing costs. Unaffordability is linked with the house price to income ratio, especially within urban environments where incomes have fallen to 50% below property prices. This not only affects access to affordable housing, but also access to quality housing. A home should be dry, warm and safe – these are the key fundamentals of quality housing and people of all ages should have access to a home in which these qualities are not compromised by their personal income. A home that is well insulated, heated, structurally sound and located close to transport nodes should be affordable for all New Zealanders. Home ownership in New Zealand plays a central role in our national identity. The design research will cater for the younger generation that are most affected by the housing crisis – first home buyers ranging between the ages of 25 and 30,wanting to get their foot on the property ladder and realise the ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership. A key issue of New Zealand’s high house prices is the influence of land costs. An intensification strategy to reduce the amount of land per dwelling is one solution to combat house prices. Intensification of New Zealand’s cities should also be targeted at an increase in urban housing along railway corridors, transport hubs and in town centres, improving both housing affordability and transport costs – two main factors of household expenditure. When these two strategies are combined with careful design and space efficient techniques, solutions can be created within a small footprint, without compromising comfort and functionality. This thesis proposition is tested in Khandallah, one of Wellington’s wealthiest suburbs, with high access to public amenities, transport and services. The suburb already has the infrastructure needed to accommodate intensification. It’s comparatively low density housing holds great opportunity for medium density and infill development. The suburb has a large range of community facilities, schools and open spaces and dwellings are typically of low density with large sites – developed through meandering roads and col-de-sacs of single houses on single sections. With Wellingtons housing needs changing, a greater need for diverse housing throughout all of Wellington’s suburbs is necessary to cater for the growing population. Khandallah has the infrastructure to support intensification and young families should have the option of buying into a suburb of their choice. The aim of this research is to develop a model for affordable, high quality suburban housing that is responsive to New Zealand’s housing preferences, providing a solution for greater access to desirable housing that occurs through interrelated well designed small homes. This thesis argues that doubling suburban density while retaining site coverage will make housing more affordable. This is tested through planning and spatial design strategies of a range of small homes less than 80m2. These homes will be developed through examining the design of internal spaces; the limits of the small home and relationship with external spaces and the limits of the suburb. The relationship between homes will allow a development of private and common utilities, optimising open space and shared amenities within an intensification strategy for the suburb. The design research produces an argument for clusters of small homes as future housing that will have a positive impact on New Zealand’s housing affordability as ‘starter homes’ and ‘downsize homes’.</p>

Live Large in Small Spaces

<p>The ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership has become less attainable because of increases in housing costs. Unaffordability is linked with the house price to income ratio, especially within urban environments where incomes have fallen to 50% below property prices. This not only affects access to affordable housing, but also access to quality housing. A home should be dry, warm and safe – these are the key fundamentals of quality housing and people of all ages should have access to a home in which these qualities are not compromised by their personal income. A home that is well insulated, heated, structurally sound and located close to transport nodes should be affordable for all New Zealanders. Home ownership in New Zealand plays a central role in our national identity. The design research will cater for the younger generation that are most affected by the housing crisis – first home buyers ranging between the ages of 25 and 30,wanting to get their foot on the property ladder and realise the ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership. A key issue of New Zealand’s high house prices is the influence of land costs. An intensification strategy to reduce the amount of land per dwelling is one solution to combat house prices. Intensification of New Zealand’s cities should also be targeted at an increase in urban housing along railway corridors, transport hubs and in town centres, improving both housing affordability and transport costs – two main factors of household expenditure. When these two strategies are combined with careful design and space efficient techniques, solutions can be created within a small footprint, without compromising comfort and functionality. This thesis proposition is tested in Khandallah, one of Wellington’s wealthiest suburbs, with high access to public amenities, transport and services. The suburb already has the infrastructure needed to accommodate intensification. It’s comparatively low density housing holds great opportunity for medium density and infill development. The suburb has a large range of community facilities, schools and open spaces and dwellings are typically of low density with large sites – developed through meandering roads and col-de-sacs of single houses on single sections. With Wellingtons housing needs changing, a greater need for diverse housing throughout all of Wellington’s suburbs is necessary to cater for the growing population. Khandallah has the infrastructure to support intensification and young families should have the option of buying into a suburb of their choice. The aim of this research is to develop a model for affordable, high quality suburban housing that is responsive to New Zealand’s housing preferences, providing a solution for greater access to desirable housing that occurs through interrelated well designed small homes. This thesis argues that doubling suburban density while retaining site coverage will make housing more affordable. This is tested through planning and spatial design strategies of a range of small homes less than 80m2. These homes will be developed through examining the design of internal spaces; the limits of the small home and relationship with external spaces and the limits of the suburb. The relationship between homes will allow a development of private and common utilities, optimising open space and shared amenities within an intensification strategy for the suburb. The design research produces an argument for clusters of small homes as future housing that will have a positive impact on New Zealand’s housing affordability as ‘starter homes’ and ‘downsize homes’.</p>

Ten Years of Evidence: Was Fraud a Force in the Financial Crisis?

This article synthesizes the large literature regarding the role of various players in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) securitization at the center of the 2008–09 US housing and financial crisis. Underwriting banks facilitated wide-scale mortgage fraud by knowingly misreporting key loan characteristics underlying mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Under the cover of complexity, credit rating agencies catered to investment banks by issuing increasingly inflated ratings on both RMBS and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Originators who engaged in mortgage fraud gained market share, as did CDO managers who catered to underwriters by accepting the lowest-quality MBS collateral. Appraisal targeting and inflated appraisals were the norm. RMBS and CDO prices indicate that the marginal AAA investor was unaware of pervasive mortgage fraud and ratings inflation, but these factors were strongly related to future deal performance. The supply of fraudulent credit was not uniform, but clustered in certain geographic regions and zip codes. As these dubious originators extended credit to those who could not afford the loans, the credit expansion led to house price booms and subsequent crashes in these zip codes. Overall, a consistent narrative based on substantial research indicates that conflicts of interest, misreporting, and fraud were focal features of the financial crisis. (JEL G01, G21, G28, K42, R30)