Renouveau identitaire, critiques de la « britannicité » et instrumentalisation de l’intégration européenne : le nationalisme écossais et le Scottish National Party
This chapter examines the independence referendum in Scotland, held on September 18, 2014, and its implications for the federal direction of the United Kingdom. The referendum saw 55 percent of Scots say “No” to the question: “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?”. Despite this result, the referendum has sparked a further process of decentralization. The chapter first describes the context that led to the Scottish independence referendum, focusing in particular on the success of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the parliamentary elections of May 2011 and why the referendum emerged from—and was organized within—the normal contours of constitutional democracy. It then considers the period of constitutional engagement and the outcome of the referendum before concluding with an analysis of some of the lessons that can be drawn from it with regard to constitutional change and the issue of secession.
Subject
Fresh election scenarios.
Significance
Opinion polls suggest that no single party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons on May 7. They also imply that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will do extremely well, substantially increasing its representation from its current six seats to around 25-45 seats. Furthermore, polls also indicate that the third party in terms of current parliamentary representation -- the Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the governing coalition -- may struggle to retain that status and could fall as low as 15-25 seats. If that occurred, the formation of a new coalition arrangement led either by the Conservatives or Labour would be much more complicated than in May 2010, when the election ended without an overall majority. This has led to speculation that another general election could follow relatively swiftly after May -- even within this calendar year.
Impacts
The May 2015 election may well not produce a result that can last for a five-year term.
The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 makes the swift dissolution of parliament for a fresh election more challenging.
Still, there is a scenario in which another contest could occur in 2015.
However, a fresh election in 2016-17 is more likely than one held a few months later.
Subject
Scottish independence drive.
Significance
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon launched a fresh independence drive on April 28. Speaking at the spring conference of her Scottish National Party (SNP) in Edinburgh, she said it was “Scotland’s intent to stay part of the European family of nations”. The conference saw delegates back plans for an independent Scottish currency, the declaration of a climate emergency and the establishment of a non-party Citizens’ Assembly to generate debate about Scotland’s future.
Impacts
The SNP’s anti-Brexit stance and efforts to help EU citizens will bolster migrant communities’ support for both the party and independence.
A major non-party, grassroots march in Glasgow on May 4 kicked off a new programme of demonstrations to raise independence support.
The 20-year anniversary of the opening of the Scottish Parliament in July will drive further debate and reflection on Scotland’s future.
Unionist parties will focus increasingly on the single issue of rejecting independence to galvanise their support.
