Abstract
Background
The prognosis of heart failure remains poor similar to the terminal cancer patients, although recent progress in medical treatment. Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) is a widely used prognostic index for terminal cancer patients (PPI includes: Palliative Performance Scale, oral intake, oedema, dyspnea at rest and delirium), suggesting the short-term prognostic marker of terminal cancer patients.
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of PPI on 30-day mortality, 1-year mortality and 1-year events (including all-cause mortality, readmission due to heart failure and new onset of cerebral infarction after hospital discharge) among acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients.
Method
Study subjects comprised of consecutive 764 patients who admitted due to ADHF and followed up for 1-year. PPI were calculated at the time of hospital admission. Study subjects were divided into two groups based on the PPI: L-PPI (PPI<6) and H-PPI (6≤PPI). We calculated the C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to evaluate the improvement of prediction ability on 30-day mortality.
Result
H-PPI showed significantly higher 30-day mortality than L-PPI [7.9% vs 2.0%, log rank p<0.001, Hazard retio (HR): 1.26, 95% confidential interval(CI): 1.14–1.37, p<0.001], 1-year mortality [20.0% vs 12.7%, log rank p=0.022, HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09–1.21, p<0.001]and 1-year events [45.5% vs 31.1%, log rank p<0.001, HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09–1.17, p<0.001]. Multivariate cox proportional hazard models adjusted with several covariates revealed that PPI was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.10–1.36, p<0.001), 1-year mortality (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04–1.16, p<0.001) and 1-year events (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07–1.15, p<0.001), respectively.
A reference model for prediction of 30-day mortality was determined including left ventricular ejection fraction and serum albumin concentration by multivariable logistic regression analysis. (P<0.05) (C-index: 0.720) Adding PPI to the reference model (C-index: 0.773) significantly improved both NRI (0.458, p=0.038) and IDI (0.046, p=0.007), respectively.
Conclusion
We suggest that assessment of PPI showed good prognostic ability for 30-day and 1-year outcome, while PPI provided additional prognostic information in patients with ADHF.
Utility of Tei Index as a Potential Diagnostic and Prognostic Index for Decompensated Heart Failure-Perception of Practicing Medical Professionals
