In this thesis, we explore the uncertainty issues in risk modelling arising from the different approaches proposed in the literature and currently being used in the industry. The first type of methods that we discuss assume that the returns of the stocks follows a generalized hyperbolic distribution. Data is calibrated by the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to estimate the parameters in the underlying distribution. Once we have the parameters, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by using Monte Carlo simulations.
Furthermore, we calibrate data to different copulas, including the Gauss Copula, the
Uncertainty in Risk Modelling
