Some results on quadratic credibility premium using the balanced loss function

PurposeThis paper generalizes the quadratic framework introduced by Le Courtois (2016) and Sumpf (2018), to obtain new credibility premiums in the balanced case, i.e. under the balanced squared error loss function. More precisely, the authors construct a quadratic credibility framework under the net quadratic loss function where premiums are estimated based on the values of past observations and of past squared observations under the parametric and the non-parametric approaches, this framework is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments of past data.Design/methodology/approachIn the actuarial field, credibility theory is an empirical model used to calculate the premium. One of the crucial tasks of the actuary in the insurance company is to design a tariff structure that will fairly distribute the burden of claims among insureds. In this work, the authors use the weighted balanced loss function (WBLF, henceforth) to obtain new credibility premiums, and WBLF is a generalized loss function introduced by Zellner (1994) (see Gupta and Berger (1994), pp. 371-390) which appears also in Dey et al. (1999) and Farsipour and Asgharzadhe (2004).FindingsThe authors declare that there is no conflict of interest and the funding information is not applicable.Research limitations/implicationsThis work is motivated by the following: quadratic credibility premium under the balanced loss function is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments and new effects such as the clustering effect to finding a premium more credible and more precise, which arranges both parts: the insurer and the insured. Also, it is easy to apply for parametric and non-parametric approaches. In addition, the formulas of the parametric (Poisson–gamma case) and the non-parametric approach are simple in form and may be used to find a more flexible premium in many special cases. On the other hand, this work neglects the semi-parametric approach because it is rarely used by practitioners.Practical implicationsThere are several examples of actuarial science (credibility).Originality/valueIn this paper, the authors used the WBLF and a quadratic adjustment to obtain new credibility premiums. More precisely, the authors construct a quadratic credibility framework under the net quadratic loss function where premiums are estimated based on the values of past observations and of past squared observations under the parametric and the non-parametric approaches, this framework is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments of past data.

Bayesian Estimate of Parameters for ARMA Model Forecasting

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to finding the Bayes estimator of parameters for ARMA model forecasting under normal-gamma prior assumption with a quadratic loss function in mathematical expression. Obtaining the conditional posterior predictive density is based on the normal-gamma prior and the conditional predictive density, whereas its marginal conditional posterior predictive density is obtained using the conditional posterior predictive density. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator of parameters is derived from the marginal conditional posterior predictive density.

On A Shape Parameter of Gompertz Inverse Exponential Distribution Using Classical and Non Classical Methods of Estimation

The Gompertz inverse exponential distribution is a three-parameter lifetime model with greater flexibility and performance for analyzing real life data. It has one scale parameter and two shape parameters responsible for the flexibility of the distribution. Despite the importance and necessity of parameter estimation in model fitting and application, it has not been established that a particular estimation method is better for any of these three parameters of the Gompertz inverse exponential distribution. This article focuses on the development of Bayesian estimators for a shape of the Gompertz inverse exponential distribution using two non-informative prior distributions (Jeffery and Uniform) and one informative prior distribution (Gamma prior) under Square error loss function (SELF), Quadratic loss function (QLF) and Precautionary loss function (PLF). These results are compared with the maximum likelihood counterpart using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results indicate that Bayesian estimators under Quadratic loss function (QLF) with any of the three prior distributions provide the smallest mean square error for all sample sizes and different values of parameters.