In this study of Ohio's shock probation program, base expectancy rates were developed through the use of predictive attribute analysis. These rates were used to evaluate the stated guidelines of the program; namely, that shock probation should be targeted for use with youthful first offenders. Therefore, the base expectancy rates were utilized to test a prediction which was being made by relevant decision-makers within the program (judges, probation officers). Analysis of the research sample of 1,081 shock probationers released in 1975 revealed that prior record was the best predictor of failure (reincarceration over a two year period). The shock probationers who had a previous criminal record were more than twice as likely to fail. These rates were not cross-validated and were not recommended for application in a mechanical fashion by decision-makers.
