Basic Probability Concepts in Loss Distribution Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghoon Lee ◽  
Sanghyo Lee ◽  
Jaejun Kim

This study investigated defect risks in residential buildings using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), a method of identifying and quantifying operational risks in economic terms. Analysis was performed on 7554 defects in 48 residential buildings where defect disputes occurred between 2008 and 2017. Defects were classified into eight types: affected functionality, broken items, corrosion, detachment, incorrect installation, missing task, surface appearance, and water problems. Work types were classified into seven groups: reinforced concrete (RC), masonry, finish, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP), door and windows, furniture, and miscellaneous. Using a risk matrix from these categories, the frequency distribution and severity distribution for each matrix cell was used to calculate loss distributions; these were combined to find the total loss distribution. The defect risks centered on RC and MEP. For RC, broken items and water leaks due to cracks or damage represented the most severe defects. For MEP, severe defects occurred owing to malfunctions in products and installation problems. Loss distributions can be used to create scenarios and corresponding response plans; thus, when a defect dispute occurs, the cost can be assessed. Furthermore, residential buildings’ loss distributions for each cell can be used to evaluate the types of work where defects occur and to verify relevant subcontractor’s abilities.


Author(s):  
JIANPING LI ◽  
JICHUANG FENG ◽  
JIANMING CHEN

Following the Basel II Accord, with the increased focus on operational risk as an aspect distinct from credit and market risk, quantification of operational risk has been a major challenge for banks. This paper analyzes implications of the advanced measurement approach to estimate the operational risk. When modeling the severity of losses in a realistic manner, our preliminary tests indicate that classic distributions are unable to fit the entire range of operational risk data samples (collected from public information sources) well. Then, we propose a piecewise-defined severity distribution (PSD) that combines a parameter form for ordinary losses and a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) for large losses, and estimate operational risk by the loss distribution approach (LDA) with Monte Carlo simulation. We compare the operational risk measured with piecewise-defined severity distribution based LDA (PSD-LDA) with those obtained from the basic indicator approach (BIA), and the ratios of operational risk regulatory capital of some major international banks with those of Chinese commercial banks. The empirical results reveal the rationality and promise of application of the PSD-LDA for Chinese national commercial banks.


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