From Correlation to Direction Dependence Analysis 1888–2018

Author(s):  
Yadolah Dodge ◽  
Valentin Rousson
2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 570-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Wiedermann ◽  
Alexander von Eye

The concept of direction dependence has attracted growing attention due to its potential to help decide which of two competing linear regression models ( X → Y or Y → X) is more likely to reflect the correct causal flow. Several tests have been proposed to evaluate hypotheses compatible with direction dependence. In this issue, Thoemmes (2015) reports results of an empirical evaluation of direction-dependence tests using real-world data sets with known causal ordering and concludes that the tests (known to perform excellent in simulation studies) perform poorly in the real-world setting. The present article aims at answering the question how this is possible. First, we review potential conceptual issues associated with Thoemmes’ (2015) approach. We argue that direction dependence is best conceptualized as a confirmatory approach to test focused directional theories. Thoemmes’ (2015) evaluation is based on an exploratory use of direction dependence. It implicitly follows the tradition of causal search algorithms. Second, we discuss potential statistical issues associated with Thoemmes’ (2015) selection schemes used to decide whether a variable pair is suitable for direction-dependence analysis. Based on these issues, new tests of direction dependence as well as new guidelines for confirmatory direction-dependence analysis are proposed. An empirical example is given to illustrate the application of these guidelines.


Author(s):  
Wolfgang Wiedermann ◽  
Xintong Li ◽  
Alexander Eye

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Xintong Li

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] In nonexperimental data, the causal ordering of variables can be examined with Direction dependence analysis (DDA), a statistical method that utilizes various asymmetry properties of the linear regression model to validate a postulated explanatory model against plausible causally reversed alternative models. However, standard DDA assumes that the observed causal effect is constant for all subjects and does not consider the conditional effect of a third variable on direction dependence, which may lead to biases and/or compromised power. The present work relaxes this assumption by proposing conditional direction dependence analysis (CDDA). CDDA examines the direction of effect when a moderator is present and extends standard DDA by combining the pick-a-point approach and variable purification technique, which enables researchers to examine the direction of effect at a certain moderator value. The results of two Monte-Carlo simulation studies are reported which evaluate the performance of CDDA. The first simulation study shows that the observed power of DDA tests vary across moderator values when a t hird variable moderators the main effect. The second study shows that, under certain conditions, CDDA is able to identify the true data-generating mechanism when a third variable determines the direction of causal flow. SPSS macros and auxiliary custom dialogues are provided for easy implementation of CDDA procedures, which is illustrated with a worked example. A real-world example is given for illustrative purpose.


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