scholarly journals Global dynamics and bifurcation analysis of a fractional‐order SEIR epidemic model with saturation incidence rate

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Bilal Ghori ◽  
Parvaiz Ahmad Naik ◽  
Jian Zu ◽  
Zohreh Eskandari ◽  
Mehraj‐ud‐din Naik
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Global Dynamics

scholarly journals Global dynamics and bifurcation analysis of a fractional-order SEIR epidemic model with saturation incidence rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parvaiz Ahmad Naik ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Ghori ◽  
Jian Zu ◽  
Zohre Eskandari ◽  
Mehraj-ud-din Naik
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Feasible Region ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Globally Stable

The present paper studies a fractional-order SEIR epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases such as HIV and HBV that spreads in the host population. The total host population is considered bounded, and Holling type-II saturation incidence rate is involved as the infection term. Using the proposed SEIR epidemic model, the threshold quantity, namely basic reproduction number R0, is obtained that determines the status of the disease, whether it dies out or persists in the whole population. The model’s analysis shows that two equilibria exist, namely, disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). The global stability of the equilibria is determined using a Lyapunov functional approach. The disease status can be verified based on obtained threshold quantity R0. If R0 < 1, then DFE is globally stable, leading to eradicating the population’s disease. If R0 > 1, a unique EE exists, and that is globally stable under certain conditions in the feasible region. The Caputo type fractional derivative is taken as the fractional operator. The bifurcation and sensitivity analyses are also performed for the proposed model that determines the relative importance of the parameters into disease transmission. The numerical solution of the model is obtained by the generalized Adams- Bashforth-Moulton method. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the analytical results.

scholarly journals Stability and Hopf Bifurcation for a Delayed SIR Epidemic Model with Logistic Growth

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yakui Xue ◽  
Tiantian Li
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Sir Epidemic

We study a delayed SIR epidemic model and get the threshold value which determines the global dynamics and outcome of the disease. First of all, for anyτ, we show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; whenR0<1, the disease will die out. Directly afterwards, we prove that the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable for anyτ=0; whenR0>1, the disease will persist. However, for anyτ≠0, the existence conditions for Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium are obtained. Besides, we compare the delayed SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate to the one with bilinear incidence rate. At last, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the conclusions.

Global dynamics of a fractional-order SIR epidemic model with memory

2020 ◽  
pp. 2050071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parvaiz Ahmad Naik
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Derivative ◽  
Memory Effect ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Memory Trace ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic

In this paper, an investigation and analysis of a nonlinear fractional-order SIR epidemic model with Crowley–Martin type functional response and Holling type-II treatment rate are established along the memory. The existence and stability of the equilibrium points are investigated. The sufficient conditions for the persistence of the disease are provided. First, a threshold value, [Formula: see text], is obtained which determines the stability of equilibria, then model equilibria are determined and their stability analysis is considered by using fractional Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion and fractional La-Salle invariant principle. The fractional derivative is taken in Caputo sense and the numerical solution of the model is obtained by L1 scheme which involves the memory trace that can capture and integrate all past activity. Meanwhile, by using Lyapunov functional approach, the global dynamics of the endemic equilibrium point is discussed. Further, some numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results obtained. The outcome of the study reveals that the applied L1 scheme is computationally very strong and effective to analyze fractional-order differential equations arising in disease dynamics. The results show that order of the fractional derivative has a significant effect on the dynamic process. Also, from the results, it is obvious that the memory effect is zero for [Formula: see text]. When the fractional-order [Formula: see text] is decreased from [Formula: see text] the memory trace nonlinearly increases from [Formula: see text], and its dynamics strongly depends on time. The memory effect points out the difference between the derivatives of the fractional-order and integer order.

Backward Bifurcation in a Fractional-Order SIRS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Incidence Rate

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 401-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Yousef ◽  
S. M. Salman
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Local Stability ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence Rate ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence ◽  
Sirs Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract:In this work we study a fractional-order susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. The incidence is assumed to be a convex function with respect to the infective class of a host population. Local and uniform stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The conditions for the existence of endemic equilibria (EE) are given. Local stability of the EE is discussed. Conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the EE are given. Most importantly, conditions ensuring that the system exhibits backward bifurcation are provided. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the correctness of results obtained analytically.

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