Assessing Future Resilience, Equity, and Sustainability in Scenario Planning

AbstractIn the absence of strong international agreements, many municipal governments are leading efforts to build resilience to climate change in general and to extreme weather events in particular. However, it is notoriously difficult to guide and activate processes of change in complex adaptive systems such as cities. Participatory scenario planning with city professionals and members of civil society provides an opportunity to coproduce positive visions of the future. Yet, not all visions are created equal. In this chapter, we introduce the Resilience, Equity, and Sustainability Qualitative (RESQ) assessment tool that we have applied to compare positive scenario visions for cities in the USA and Latin America. We use the tool to examine the visions of the two desert cities in the UrbanResilience to Extreme Events Sustainability Research Network (UREx SRN), which are Hermosillo (Mexico) and Phoenix (United States).

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A Transdisciplinary Complex Adaptive Systems (T-CAS) Approach to Developing a National School-Based Culture of Prevention for Health Improvement: the School Health Research Network (SHRN) in Wales

Prevention Science ◽

10.1007/s11121-018-0969-3 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 50-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Simon Murphy ◽

Hannah Littlecott ◽

Gillian Hewitt ◽

Sarah MacDonald ◽

Joan Roberts ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Complex Adaptive Systems ◽

Health Research ◽

Adaptive Systems ◽

School Health ◽

Systems Approach ◽

Research Network ◽

Health Improvement ◽

Policy And Practice ◽

Complex Adaptive ◽

Culture Of Prevention

AbstractThe paper reflects on a transdisciplinary complex adaptive systems (T-CAS) approach to the development of a school health research network (SHRN) in Wales for a national culture of prevention for health improvement in schools. A T-CAS approach focuses on key stages and activities within a continuous network cycle to facilitate systems level change. The theory highlights the importance of establishing transdisciplinary strategic partnerships to identify and develop opportunities for system reorientation. Investment in and the linking of resources develops the capacity for key social agents to take advantage of disruption points in the re-orientated system, and engagement activities develop the network to facilitate new social interactions and opportunities for transdisciplinary activities. A focus on transdisciplinary action research to co-produce interventions, generate research evidence and inform policy and practice is shown to play an important part in developing new normative processes that act to self-regulate the emerging system. Finally, the provision of reciprocal network benefits provides critical feedback loops that stabilise the emerging adaptive system and promote the network cycle. SHRN is shown to have embedded itself in the system by securing sustainability funding from health and education, a key role in national and regional planning and recruiting every eligible school to the network. It has begun to reorient the system to one of evidence generation (56 research studies co-produced) and opportunities for data-led practice at multiple levels. Further capacity development will be required to capitalise on these. The advantages of a complex systems approach to address barriers to change and the transferability of a T-CAS network approach across settings and cultures are highlighted.

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Context: The strategic management Rosetta Stone

Acta Commercii ◽

10.4102/ac.v7i1.45 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

R. V. Weeks

Keyword(s):

Strategic Management ◽

Complex Adaptive Systems ◽

Adaptive Systems ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Theory And Practice ◽

Management Theory ◽

Response Alternative ◽

Making Sense ◽

Rosetta Stone ◽

Complex Adaptive

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse context as a means for interpreting and making sense of evolving strategic management theory and practice. Problem investigated: Traditional strategic management theory based on rational deductive methodologies assumes contextual predictability, yet contemporary conditions tend to contradict this assumption. In response, alternative theories and practices for dealing with complex contexts have emerged (Brews & Purohit, 2006; Grant, 2003; Kurt & Snowden, 2003and Stacey, 1995). Methodology: A literature study was undertaken to determine the nature of emergent strategic management theory and practice, in response to contextual complexity and how it differs from traditional practice (Mintzberg, 1994 and Weeks &Lessing, 1993). Findings: An important conclusion drawn from the study is that context acts as a determinant for making sense of the evolution of strategic management theory and practice. While traditional strategic management practice still assumes relevance in contexts of linear causality, it breaks down in complex contexts. Emergent strategic management theory, based on complex adaptive systems, is increasingly assuming relevance. Notably, many institutions are still attempting to make use of scenario planning in an attempt to deal with contextual complexity, a practice not supported by leading researchers(Stacey, 1995 and Kurt & Snowden, 2003). Value of the research: The insights gained from the study assume relevance, in view of the contextual complexity confronting modern-day institutions. The findings suggest that emergent strategy based on complex adaptive system theory needs to be considered as a means for dealing with increasing environmental turbulence. Conclusion: It is concluded that context serves as the Rosetta stone for making sense of strategic management theory and practice. In view of the research findings, as reflected in the literature, it would seem that the use of complex adaptive systems theory is gaining in relevance, as a means for dealing with complex contexts. Also important is the finding that traditional and emergent practices can in effect coexist, depending on context

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A systems perspective as a tool to understand disruption in travel and tourism

Journal of Tourism Futures ◽

10.1108/jtf-04-2020-0052 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Albert Postma ◽

Ian Seymour Yeoman

Keyword(s):

Systems Thinking ◽

Complex Adaptive Systems ◽

Adaptive Systems ◽

Systems Approach ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Content Type ◽

Travel And Tourism ◽

Systems Perspective ◽

Complex Adaptive ◽

Strategic Foresight

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular. Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system. Findings As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside. To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised. Practical implications Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned. Originality/value Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary; thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system. This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems.

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