The Evaluation of Financial Risk and Portfolio Selection

Author(s):  
Ümit Hacioglu ◽  
Hasan Dincer ◽  
Ismail Erkan Çelik
2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 330-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doron Nisani

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to increase the accuracy of the efficient portfolios frontier and the capital market line using the Riskiness Index.Design/methodology/approachThis paper will develop the mean-riskiness model for portfolio selection using the Riskiness Index.FindingsThis paper’s main result is establishing a mean-riskiness efficient set of portfolios. In addition, the paper presents two applications for the mean-riskiness portfolio management method: one that is based on the multi-normal distribution (which is identical to the MV model optimal portfolio) and one that is based on the multi-normal inverse Gaussian distribution (which increases the portfolio’s accuracy, as it includes the a-symmetry and tail-heaviness features in addition to the scale and diversification features of the MV model).Research limitations/implicationsThe Riskiness Index is not a coherent measurement of financial risk, and the mean-riskiness model application is based on a high-order approximation to the portfolio’s rate of return distribution.Originality/valueThe mean-riskiness model increases portfolio management accuracy using the Riskiness Index. As the approximation order increases, the portfolio’s accuracy increases as well. This result can lead to a more efficient asset allocation in the capital markets.


2011 ◽  
Vol 271-273 ◽  
pp. 592-596
Author(s):  
Ai Zhong Li ◽  
Ruo En Ren

In this paper a continuous-time portfolio optimization decision with the redemption is made, a typical portfolio selection model is established by use of Bellman principle of optimality and HJB equation, we derive the optimal strategy and efficient frontier with general stochastic control technique. Its research methodologies can be applied in the practical work such as investment funds management and financial risk management to raise the scientificity of decisions. It is of great referential and inspirational value to provide solutions to practical problem in real investment process.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod Duclos ◽  
Echo Wen Wan ◽  
Yuwei Jiang

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen-Fu Chien ◽  
Francois Sainfort

Author(s):  
Agung Mulyono

Cash management is  one of treasury’s main functions in which has a potential financial risk. A potential financial risk emerges when State Treasurer manages cash surplus and or/ shortages in order to maintain optimum liquidity. By applying Vector Autoregression (VAR) system on empirical data provided by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, we found that currency value  flunctuation is a significant factor for repayment value of foreign loan. Interest rates and amount of government’s bond held by foreign investors are also variables impacted on government’s bond price movement in secondary market. Currency value  flunctuation and price of government’s bond in secondary market are the key factors that have to be considered by State Treasurer (BUN) in managing state’s money. Hedging strategy by using derivatif product is possible to be utilized by State Treasurer (BUN) due to it’s flexibility for short-term operation.   Abstrak Pengelolaan kas negara merupakan salah satu fungsi pokok perbendaharaan yang dalam proses pelaksanaannya menyimpan potensi berbagai risiko keuangan. Risiko keuangan, khususnya dalam investasi berpotensi muncul ketika Bendahara Umum Negara (BUN) melakukan kegiatan pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas dalam rangka menjamin ketersediaan dan optimalisasi kas. Dengan menggunakan analisis Vector Autoregression (VAR) atas data empiris yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia, penulis menemukan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang merupakan faktor yang signifikan terhadap besaran pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Tingkat suku bunga acuan dan pergerakan besaran kepemilikan SUN oleh investor asing juga merupakan variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder. Fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang dan pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder menjadi faktor penting dalam pelaksanaan investasi yang dilakukan BUN dalam rangka pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, strategi pengelolaan risiko atau hedging dengan menggunakan produk-produk derivatif dalam pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas jangka pendek – menengah sangat dimungkinkan karena sifat instrumen derivatif yang fleksibel.


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