Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices

The tilted S-shaped utility function proposed in Prospect Theory (PT) relied fundamentally on the geometrical notion that there is a discontinuity between gains and losses, and that individual preferences change relative to a reference point. This results in PT having three distinct parameters; concavity, convexity and the reference point represented as a disjoint between the concavity and convexity sections of the curve. The objective of this paper is to examine the geometrical violations of PT at the zero point of reference. This qualitative study adopted a theoretical review of PT and Markowitz’s triply inflected value function concept to unravel methodological assumptions which were not fully addressed by either PT or cumulative PT. Our findings suggest a need to account for continuity and to resolve this violation of PT at the reference point. In so doing, an alternative preference transition theory, was proposed as a solution that includes a phase change space to cojoin these three separate parameters into one continuous nonlinear model. This novel conceptual model adds new knowledge of risk and uncertainty in decision making. Through a better understanding of an individual’s reference point in decision making behaviour, we add to contemporary debate by complementing empirical studies and harmonizing research in this field. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-03 Full Text: PDF

Site-specific gains and losses of heterochromatin accelerate the age-related neurodegeneration through the cascading destruction of KDM3B-centered epigenomic network

Epigenetic alterations explained by the “loss of heterochromatin” model have been proposed as a universal mechanism of aging, but the region-specific changes of heterochromatin during aging are unclear. Here, we examine age-dependent transcriptomic profiling of mouse retinal neurons to identify epigenetic regulators involved in heterochromatin loss. RNA sequencing analysis revealed gradual down-regulation of Kdm3b during retinal aging. Disruption of Kdm3b (Kdm3b+/-) in 12-month-old mouse retina decreased the number of cone photoreceptors and changed the morphology of cone ribbon synapses. Integration of transcriptome profiling with epigenomic analysis demonstrated gain of heterochromatin feature in synapse assembly and vesicle transport genes via the accumulation of H3K9 mono- and di-methylation. However, the loss of heterochromatin in apoptotic genes exacerbated retinal neurodegeneration. We propose that this KDM3B-centered epigenomic network is crucial for maintaining cone photoreceptor homeostasis via the modulation of gene-set specific heterochromatin features during aging.

Choice Bundling Increases Valuation of Delayed Losses More Than Gains in Cigarette Smokers

Choice bundling, in which a single choice produces a series of repeating consequences over time, increases valuation of delayed monetary and non-monetary gains. Interventions derived from this manipulation may be an effective method for mitigating the elevated delay discounting rates observed in cigarette smokers. No prior work, however, has investigated whether the effects of choice bundling generalize to reward losses. In the present study, an online panel of cigarette smokers (N = 302), recruited using survey firms Ipsos and InnovateMR, completed assessments for either monetary gains or losses (randomly assigned). In Step 1, participants completed a delay-discounting task to establish Effective Delay 50 (ED50), or the delay required for an outcome to lose half of its value. In Step 2, participants completed three conditions of an adjusting-amount task, choosing between a smaller, sooner (SS) adjusting amount and a larger, later (LL) fixed amount. The bundle size (i.e., number of consequences) was manipulated across conditions, where a single choice produced either 1 (control), 3, or 9 consequences over time (ascending/descending order counterbalanced). The delay to the first LL amount in each condition, as well as the intervals between all additional SS and LL amounts (where applicable), were set to individual participants’ ED50 values from Step 1 to control for differences in discounting of gains and losses. Results from Step 1 showed significantly higher ED50 values (i.e., less discounting) for losses compared to gains (p < 0.001). Results from Step 2 showed that choice bundling significantly increased valuation of both LL gains and losses (p < 0.001), although effects were significantly greater for losses (p < 0.01). Sensitivity analyses replicated these conclusions. Future research should examine the potential clinical utility of choice bundling, such as development of motivational interventions that emphasize both the bundled health gains associated with smoking cessation and the health losses associated with continued smoking.

What has happened and what has not happened due to the coronavirus disease pandemic: a systemic perspective on policy change

The societal and policy transformations associated with the coronavirus disease pandemic are currently subject of intense academic debate. In this paper, we contribute to this debate by adopting a systemic perspective on policy change, shedding light on the hidden and indirect crisis effects. Based on a comprehensive analysis of policy agenda developments in Germany, we find that the pandemic led to profound shifts in political attention across policy areas. We demonstrate that these agenda gains and losses per policy area vary by the extent to which the respective areas can be presented as relevant in managing the coronavirus disease crisis and its repercussions. Moreover, relying on the analysis of past four economic crises, we also find that there is limited potential for catching up dynamics after the crisis is over. Policy areas that lost agenda share during crisis are unlikely to make up for these losses by strong attention gains once the crisis is over. Crises have hence substantial, long-term and so far, neglected effects on policymaking in modern democracies.

The evolution of insect visual opsin genes with specific consideration of the influence of ocelli and life history traits

Background Visual opsins are expressed in the compound eyes and ocelli of insects and enable light detection. Three distinct phylogenetic groups of visual opsins are found in insects, named long (LW), short (SW) and ultraviolet (UV) wavelength sensitive opsins. Recently, the LW group was found to be duplicated into the LW2b and the LW2a opsins. The expression of LW2b opsins is ocelli specific in some insects (e.g., bees, cricket, scorpion flies), but the gene was not found in other orders possessing three or less ocelli (e.g., dragonflies, beetles, moths, bugs). In flies, two LW2b homologs have been characterised, with one expressed in the ocelli and the other in the compound eyes. To date, it remains unclear which evolutionary forces have driven gains and losses of LW opsins in insects. Here we take advantage of the recent rapid increase in available sequence data (i.e., from insect genomes, targeted PCR amplification, RNAseq) to characterize the phylogenetic relationships of 1000 opsin sequences in 18 orders of Insects. The resulting phylogeny discriminates between four main groups of opsins, and onto this phylogeny we mapped relevant morphological and life history traits. Results Our results demonstrate a conserved LW2b opsin only present in insects with three ocelli. Only two groups (Brachycera and Odonata) possess more than one LW2b opsin, likely linked to their life history. In flies, we hypothesize that the duplication of the LW2b opsin occurred after the transition from aquatic to terrestrial larvae. During this transition, higher flies (Brachycera) lost a copy of the LW2a opsin, still expressed and duplicated in the compound eyes of lower flies (Nematocera). In higher flies, the LW2b opsin has been duplicated and expressed in the compound eyes while the ocelli and the LW2b opsin were lost in lower flies. In dragonflies, specialisation of flight capabilities likely drove the diversification of the LW2b visual opsins. Conclusion The presence of the LW2b opsin in insects possessing three ocelli suggests a role in specific flight capabilities (e.g., stationary flight). This study provides the most complete view of the evolution of visual opsin genes in insects yet, and provides new insight into the influence of ocelli and life history traits on opsin evolution in insects.

Experience in the use of olanzapine in an inpatient ward – clinical cases

Treating both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder require chronic drug therapy that must be chosen after careful consideration of the gains and losses associated with it. Hence, the process of the drug selection must take into account both the profile of patient’s symptoms and his coexisting diseases as well as the patient’s tolerance of earlier therapies. Olanzapine reduces positive symptoms of psychosis and enables stabilization in terms of affective episodes via blocking dopaminergic receptors. An important problem related to olanzapine therapy is its negative effect on the metabolism of carbohydrates and lipids. For this reason, appropriate information for the patient and implementation of appropriate prophylaxis, including monitoring of metabolic parameters, are recommended. Despite the risk of metabolic complications in some patients, olanzapine remains at the forefront of antipsychotic drugs, due to the good balance of benefits and losses associated with pharmacotherapy. In this paper, we present two clinical cases of patients who have been treated with olanzapine for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Twelve Votes for an Exit: Compromise and Responsiveness in the Brexit Process

Brexit has been at the centre of the last two British elections and the past legislative term. The UK's exit from the European Union was characterized by a series of parliamentary setbacks, with several government defeats, continuous rebellions and cross-party agreements made to secure control of the agenda. In the research reported in this article, we analyse the parliamentary Brexit process through careful examination of the 12 indicative votes held in Westminster in 2019 to find an alternative solution to Theresa May's exit agreement. We map the choices of each MP along two relevant dimensions, connecting them to the socioeconomic structure of their constituencies as well as to the preferences expressed in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Moreover, we associate these parliamentary behaviours – and thus MPs' attitudes towards compromise and responsiveness – to the gains and losses experienced during the subsequent 2019 general election.