scholarly journals Decision Making Under Interval Uncertainty (and Beyond)

2013 ◽  
pp. 163-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladik Kreinovich
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interval Uncertainty

scholarly journals Decision making under interval uncertainty: toward (somewhat) more convincing justifications for Hurwicz optimism-pessimism approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Warattaya Chinnakum ◽  
Laura Berrout Ramos ◽  
Olugbenga Iyiola ◽  
Vladik Kreinovich
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Interval Uncertainty ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Expected Gain ◽  
Utility Approach ◽  
Interval Valued ◽  
Weighted Combination

Purpose In real life, we only know the consequences of each possible action with some uncertainty. A typical example is interval uncertainty, when we only know the lower and upper bounds on the expected gain. A usual way to compare such interval-valued alternatives is to use the optimism–pessimism criterion developed by Nobelist Leo Hurwicz. In this approach, a weighted combination of the worst-case and the best-case gains is maximized. There exist several justifications for this criterion; however, some of the assumptions behind these justifications are not 100% convincing. The purpose of this paper is to find a more convincing explanation. Design/methodology/approach The authors used utility approach to decision-making. Findings The authors proposed new, hopefully more convincing, justifications for Hurwicz’s approach. Originality/value This is a new, more intuitive explanation of Hurwicz’s approach to decision-making under interval uncertainty.

APPROACHES TO MULTI-STAGE MULTI-ATTRIBUTE GROUP DECISION MAKING

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 121-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZESHUI XU
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Weight Vector ◽  
Interval Uncertainty ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Magdm Problems

Multi-stage multi-attribute group decision making (MS-MAGDM) as a familiar decision activity that usually occurs in our daily life, such as multi-stage investment decision making, medical diagnosis, personnel dynamic examination, military system efficiency dynamic evaluation, etc. The aim of this paper is to investigate MS-MAGDM problems in which both the weight information on a collection of predefined attributes and the decision information on a finite set of alternatives with respect to the attributes are collected at different stages. We first propose a Poisson distribution based method to determine the weight vector associated with a time-weighted averaging (TWA) operator. Furthermore, we use a hybrid weighted aggregation (HWA) operator to fuse all individual decision information into group opinions at different stages, and then utilize the TWA operator to aggregate the derived group opinions at different stages into the complex group ones so as to rank the given alternatives. After that, we further investigate MS-MAGDM problems where all decision information at different stages cannot be given in exact numerical values, but value ranges can be obtained. An approach based on the uncertain time-weighted averaging (UTWA) operator and the uncertain hybrid weighted aggregation (UHWA) operator is developed for solving MS-MAGDM problems under interval uncertainty. Finally, a practical example is provided to illustrate the developed approaches.

scholarly journals Decision-making under interval uncertainty revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Kosheleva ◽  
Vladik Kreinovich ◽  
Uyen Pham
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Interval Uncertainty ◽  
Parametric Family ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Expected Gain

Purpose In many real-life situations, we do not know the exact values of the expected gain corresponding to different possible actions, we only have lower and upper bounds on these gains – i.e., in effect, intervals of possible gain values. The purpose of this study is to describe all possible ways to make decisions under such interval uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach The authors used both natural invariance and additivity requirements. Findings The authors demonstrated that natural requirements – invariance or additivity – led to a two-parametric family of possible decision-making strategies. Originality/value This is a first description of all reasonable strategies for decision-making under interval uncertainty – strategies that satisfy natural requirements of invariance or additivity.

scholarly journals INTERVAL UNCERTAINTY OF ESTIMATES AND JUDGMENTS OF SUBJECT IN DECISION MAKING IN MULTI-CRITERIA PROBLEMS

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Madera
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Interval Uncertainty ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Deterministic Process ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Global Priority ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Hierarchy Process

<p>In this article, we propose a method of decision making in multi-criteria problems given an interval uncertainty of the estimates given by the subject in reference to the importance of one criterion over another and various alternatives for each criterion. The method is the development of the deterministic process of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, which uses deterministic point estimates of the importance of criteria and alternatives for each criterion for decision making in multi-criteria problems. While in the standard Analytic Hierarchy Process the values of global priorities corresponding to different alternatives are deterministic and unambiguous, in the interval process developed in this article the global priorities and alternatives are interval and uncertain. If in the standard deterministic Analytic Hierarchy Process the best alternative is selected by the maximum value of the global priority, then, to select the best interval alternative, here we introduce a criterion corresponding to the maximum values of the lower and upper boundaries of the intervals of global priorities of the alternatives. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated by a specific example. </p>

scholarly journals Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Interval Uncertainty for Artillery Recoil Resistance

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Rong Li ◽  
Quanzhao Sun ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Yanming Song ◽  
Guolai Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Interval Uncertainty ◽  
Multiple Attribute
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