Bayesian Forecasting of Turning Points in Economic Cycles

Migratory farm labor like other forms of migrant work both in and outside agriculture impedes on the opportunity to make choices. The following essay explores particular phases in the life of one man (a single case study) and examines how he considers turning points in his life that led to a long period of substance use, both as an immigrant in the country and as a working man in his home country, followed by a cessation of use and the beginning stages of recovery. / Para el migrante, viajar en busca de trabajo es díficil, ya sea que trabaje en agricultura o en otras labores. Este ensayo examina ciertas etapas en la vida de un hombre (estudio de un solo caso) que examina los cambios que le han ocurrido durante un período en que él consumía grandes cantidades de alcohol en los estados y en su país, seguido por un período de sobriedad (no tomaba alcohol, no usaba drogas) en este país en que él comienza una etapa de rehabilitación.

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Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott: Driving Forces behind Economic Cycles (2004 Nobel Prize in Economics)

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2005-1-133-143 ◽

2005 ◽

pp. 133-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

E. Balashova

Keyword(s):

Nobel Prize ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Microeconomic Theory ◽

Business Cycle Theory ◽

Economic Cycles ◽

Cyclical Fluctuations ◽

Long Run ◽

Time To Build ◽

New Business ◽

Extensive Research Program

The method of analyzing and modeling cyclical fluctuations of economy initiated by F. Kydland and E. Prescott - the 2004 Nobel Prize winners in Economics - is considered in the article. They proposed a new business cycle theory integrating the theory of long-run economic growth as well as the microeconomic theory of consumers and firms behavior. Simple version of general dynamic and stochastic macroeconomic model is described. The given approach which was formulated in their fundamental work "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" (1982) gave rise to an extensive research program and is still used as a basic instrument for investigating cyclical processes in economy nowadays.

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