Currency substitution as an automatic stabilizer

In the presence of frictions, the existing literature shows that currency substitution is detrimental for domestic aggregate stability. This paper singles out the role of currency substitution and shows that diversified currency holdings operate as an automatic stabilizer that mitigates belief-driven cyclical fluctuations in Farmer’s (1997) indeterminate monetary economy. When the foreign inflation rate is lower than the domestic inflation rate, the model’s steady state always displays saddle-path stability. Hence, equilibrium indeterminacy originally present in the domestic country is entirely removed in the presence of diversified currency holdings. When the foreign inflation rate is higher than the domestic inflation rate, then depending on the degrees of currency substitution and relative risk aversion, indeterminacy is either impossible or the requisite level of the foreign inflation rate for indeterminacy is too high to square with data. The stabilizing effect of diversified currency holdings on domestic aggregate stability is robust to whether domestic and foreign currencies display as Edgeworth substitutes or complements, or are additively separable in the household’s preferences.

West Nile fever in Volgograd Oblast: features of the epidemic process’s manifestations at the present stage

Objective: To study the regional features of the West Nile fever (WNF) epidemic process manifestations using the example of the territory with stable and long-term pathogen circulation (Volgograd Oblast).Materials and Methods: We used the data of the Reference Center for monitoring the WNF pathogen based on the Volgograd Research Anti-Plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor over 1999–2021. The main method is a comprehensive epidemiological method.Results: The long-term changes in the WNF incidence in Volgograd Oblast is characterized by a cyclical nature with an interval of 1–8 years and a tendency to decrease. The maximum risk of infection occurs in August (58.8%), but there is an increase in the number of cases in September. The average duration of the epidemic season is 8.4 weeks. Case fatality rate is at the level of 4.3%; the prevalence of the number of deaths in the group of 70 years and older (75%), as well as among men (63.6%) has been established. The greatest contribution to the incidence rate is made by the age group of 60 years and older (37.7%). Features of the clinical presentation include the dominance of forms without damage to the central nervous system (91.1%) and moderate clinical course (72.3%). The prevalence of the urban population among the infected was noted (85.5%).Conclusion: A comparative analysis of the clinical and epidemiological WNF manifestations in Volgograd Oblast, territories with a stable circulation of the pathogen (Astrakhan and Rostov Oblasts) and, in overall, the Russian Federation, established differences in the duration of cyclical fluctuations in incidence, seasonality (Rostov Oblast), age structure of incidence (Astrakhan Oblast), distribution of cases by the severity of the clinical course, the site of the alleged infection and social status.

Model identification, migration, and investment-specific shocks: Three essays

<p>This thesis consists of an introduction and three substantive chapters. Chapter 2 explores the identification of a small open economy model. Chapter 3 focuses on the business cycle consequences of migration. And chapter 4 investigates the contribution of investment-specific technology shocks to business cycle fluctuations in the presence of financial frictions. Chapter 2 takes a conventional new open economy macro model for a small open economy and addresses three questions: what data series should be used to identify the parameters of such a model? Are foreign data important for the identification of domestic parameters? And lastly, which structural parameters are interdependent? The chapter illustrates an applied methodology that enables an investigator to understand which data series are informative about parameters. The methodology can also be used to learn about the properties of the model. In particular, the methodology highlights which parameters are connected to which data series. Identification of business cycle models matters because our ability to recover structural parameters is influenced by the data series that are used to inform the estimation. Structural parameters determine both the specification of household preferences and the constraints that affect business cycle volatility, which together determine welfare. Consequently, identification analysis can provide insights into household welfare, which in turn has ramifications for the specification of monetary policy rules. If parameters are identified then the likelihood will eventually outweigh any prior beliefs as the sample size becomes large (Gelman et al., 2004, p. 107). The approach discussed here thus shows whether data will eventually dominate prior beliefs about parameters, determining whether analysis can – in the limit – resolve conflicting prior beliefs, and therefore usefully inform the design of policy rules. Chapter 3 of this thesis examines the business cycle effects that arise from an expansion of the population due to migration. In recent years, migration flows have become a highly politicised topic, both in New Zealand and abroad. While the debate on migration has become heated, comparatively little is known about the business cycle consequences of migration flows. This chapter contributes to the macroeconomic literature by illustrating the contribution that migration shocks make to cyclical fluctuations in New Zealand, and illustrates their dynamic impact. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and a structural vector autoregression, the chapter shows that migration shocks account for a considerable portion of the variability of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). While migration shocks matter for the capital investment and consumption components of per capita GDP, other shocks are more important drivers of cyclical fluctuations in these aggregates. Migration shocks also make some contribution to residential investment and real house prices, but other shocks play a more substantial role in driving housing market volatility. In the DSGE model, the level of human capital possessed by migrants relative to that of locals materially affects the business cycle impact of migration. The impact of migration shocks is larger when migrants have substantially different – larger or smaller – levels of human capital relative to locals. When the average migrant has higher levels of human capital than locals, as seems to be common for migrants into most OECD¹ economies, a migration shock has an expansionary effect on per capita GDP and its components, which also accords with the evidence from a structural vector autoregression. Chapter 4 of this thesis investigates the contribution of investment-specific technology (IST) shocks in driving cyclical fluctuations in a closed economy model when a borrowing constraint is introduced à la Kiyotaki and Moore (1997). IST shocks have been identified as a major driver of the business cycle, eg see Greenwood et al. (2000), and Justiniano et al. (2010, 2011). These shocks affect the rate at which investment goods are transformed into capital stock, and have been linked to frictions in financial markets, because financial intermediation is instrumental in facilitating investment. The third chapter shows that the importance of these investment shocks is in fact substantially diminished when collateral constraints on firms are introduced into an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In the presence of binding collateral constraints, risk premium shocks, which perturb interest rates and affect intertemporal substitution, supplant IST shocks as important drivers of the business cycle. ¹ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.</p>

Model identification, migration, and investment-specific shocks: Three essays

<p>This thesis consists of an introduction and three substantive chapters. Chapter 2 explores the identification of a small open economy model. Chapter 3 focuses on the business cycle consequences of migration. And chapter 4 investigates the contribution of investment-specific technology shocks to business cycle fluctuations in the presence of financial frictions. Chapter 2 takes a conventional new open economy macro model for a small open economy and addresses three questions: what data series should be used to identify the parameters of such a model? Are foreign data important for the identification of domestic parameters? And lastly, which structural parameters are interdependent? The chapter illustrates an applied methodology that enables an investigator to understand which data series are informative about parameters. The methodology can also be used to learn about the properties of the model. In particular, the methodology highlights which parameters are connected to which data series. Identification of business cycle models matters because our ability to recover structural parameters is influenced by the data series that are used to inform the estimation. Structural parameters determine both the specification of household preferences and the constraints that affect business cycle volatility, which together determine welfare. Consequently, identification analysis can provide insights into household welfare, which in turn has ramifications for the specification of monetary policy rules. If parameters are identified then the likelihood will eventually outweigh any prior beliefs as the sample size becomes large (Gelman et al., 2004, p. 107). The approach discussed here thus shows whether data will eventually dominate prior beliefs about parameters, determining whether analysis can – in the limit – resolve conflicting prior beliefs, and therefore usefully inform the design of policy rules. Chapter 3 of this thesis examines the business cycle effects that arise from an expansion of the population due to migration. In recent years, migration flows have become a highly politicised topic, both in New Zealand and abroad. While the debate on migration has become heated, comparatively little is known about the business cycle consequences of migration flows. This chapter contributes to the macroeconomic literature by illustrating the contribution that migration shocks make to cyclical fluctuations in New Zealand, and illustrates their dynamic impact. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and a structural vector autoregression, the chapter shows that migration shocks account for a considerable portion of the variability of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). While migration shocks matter for the capital investment and consumption components of per capita GDP, other shocks are more important drivers of cyclical fluctuations in these aggregates. Migration shocks also make some contribution to residential investment and real house prices, but other shocks play a more substantial role in driving housing market volatility. In the DSGE model, the level of human capital possessed by migrants relative to that of locals materially affects the business cycle impact of migration. The impact of migration shocks is larger when migrants have substantially different – larger or smaller – levels of human capital relative to locals. When the average migrant has higher levels of human capital than locals, as seems to be common for migrants into most OECD¹ economies, a migration shock has an expansionary effect on per capita GDP and its components, which also accords with the evidence from a structural vector autoregression. Chapter 4 of this thesis investigates the contribution of investment-specific technology (IST) shocks in driving cyclical fluctuations in a closed economy model when a borrowing constraint is introduced à la Kiyotaki and Moore (1997). IST shocks have been identified as a major driver of the business cycle, eg see Greenwood et al. (2000), and Justiniano et al. (2010, 2011). These shocks affect the rate at which investment goods are transformed into capital stock, and have been linked to frictions in financial markets, because financial intermediation is instrumental in facilitating investment. The third chapter shows that the importance of these investment shocks is in fact substantially diminished when collateral constraints on firms are introduced into an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In the presence of binding collateral constraints, risk premium shocks, which perturb interest rates and affect intertemporal substitution, supplant IST shocks as important drivers of the business cycle. ¹ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.</p>

A statistical study of pre-monsoon weather over south Bengal using descriptive and inferential techniques

Statistical data summarization techniques, curve fitting methods and statistical tests, both parametric and non-parametric, have been applied to form a comprehensive idea about pre-monsoon weather over South Bengal situated in the northeastern part of the Indian sub-continent. The work is based on surface data recorded at 15 major observatories during the period 1969-2000, spread across the western plateau and highlands, Rarh and Gangetic region of South Bengal. The homogeneity of pre-monsoon rainfall and its variability over different stations has been studied using Bartlett`s and Kruskal Wallis tests. For stations with complete weather information for at least 30 consecutive years, time series analysis has been carried out on rainfall data for a climatological overview of long-term behaviour, seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of pre-monsoon rainfall in those areas. This paper, apart from being a regional study, highlights the use of certain parametric and non-parametric tests, not so widely used in the context of climatology.

Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Yuan-SDR Exchange Rate

The paper endeavours to explore the macroeconomic impact on the Yuan SDR exchange rate of China during 2017m1-2021m6 to justify the internationalization of RMB which had entered into the SDR basket of IMF in October 2016.To evaluate the impact ,the paper used the methodology of Johansen (1988) cointegration and vector error correction model considering monthly Yuan per SDR as dependent variable and monthly GDP, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, export and import as the independent macro-economic variables. The pattern of trendline of Yuan per SDR is found nonlinear having cyclical fluctuations and seasonal variations according to Hamilton (2018). The paper also found that Yuan per SDR has significant long run causalities with export, import, inflation rate, GDP and foreign exchange rate of China during the specified period. Even, Yuan per SDR has significant short run causality with export only. The cointegrating equation converged towards the equilibrium with the speed of adjustment 11.83% per month significantly. The impulse response function of import to Yuan per SDR showed significantly convergent. The VECM contains autocorrelation problem and unit root for which it is non-stationary.

Assessment of the geomorphological safety of the Daurian region for the purpose of effective nature management

The risk assessment of the dangerous geomorphological processes development in the Dauria steppes in conditions of pronounced cyclical fluctuations in climate and high dynamism of geomorphological systems is carried out on a five-point scale. The analysis of the spatial and temporal structure of fluvial and aeolian processes for the purposes of nature management is fulfilled. The role of extreme geomorphological events is shown, which are a serious limiting factor of conflict-free nature management in the Daurian region. The revealed catastrophic manifestations of fluvial and aeolian processes require careful planning of economic activities and serious environmental protection measures. The result of the assessment is the zoning of the Dauria territory according to the degree of geomorphological risk. The types of economic activities that do not violate the stability of the regime of geomorphological systems, and, on the other hand, are undesirable, increasing the risk of critical natural situations, are indicated.

Cyclical haematological changes in a case of hypopituitarism

A 40-year-old woman presented to our emergency department in an altered state following a generalised tonic-clonic seizure. On regaining consciousness, she gave a history of bleeding tendencies and menorrhagia, fatigue, nausea, vomiting and appetite loss for a long time. She had received multiple blood transfusions in the last 10 years. Investigations revealed severe hyponatraemia, transaminitis and pancytopenia, which showed cyclical fluctuations in the hospital. Hyponatraemia was attributed to a central cause owing to secondary hypothyroidism and hypocortisolism on evaluation. A diagnosis of cyclical thrombocytopenia was made by logging the trends of blood cell lines and applying the Lomb-Scargle test. Liver biopsy showed features of transfusion hemosiderosis explaining transaminitis. All of the haematological abnormalities and clinical symptoms resolved on thyroxine and corticosteroid replacement, suggesting causal association hypopituitarism with cyclical thrombocytopenia

Relationship Between Economic Climate and the Level of Barriers to Doing Business in the Services Sector in the EU Countries

Development of the whole economy and sectors of the economy is influenced by cyclical fluctuations, what can be observed as slowdown or acceleration of the economic processes. The identification of the leads and lags between the economic indicators, that reveals cyclical fluctuations is very important. The paper attempts to diagnose the lead and lag relationship between the economic sentiment indicators and the indicators of barriers to doing business in the services sector. The growth cycle approach was applied in the paper. A cross correlation analysis was conducted to identify the lead / lag relationship between the variables. The results of the analysis enable to conclude if the confidence indicator is a leading or lagged indicator and what is the length of lead / lag in relation to the indicators of barriers to doing business in the services sector in the EU countries. The study indicate the number of quarters from the peak or through of the business cycle in the services sector after that the level of factors limiting business activity will start to grow or drop. The results of the study can be useful both to the managers of firms as well as the governments.

Trade credit, trade income elasticity and the international transmission of shocks

The paper examines the impact of trade credit on cyclical fluctuations in international trade. It provides new empirical evidence based on firm-level UK and Irish data showing that exporters use trade credit more actively and intensively than non-exporters. The study introduces inter-firm lending into an open economy general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous entry into the exports market. It demonstrates that trade credit amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on international trade both along the intensive and extensive margins and that it significantly contributes to the high trade income elasticity observed in the data.