On the Convergence of Beliefs and Policy to a Rational Expectations Equilibrium in a Dual Policy Problem

1988 ◽  
pp. 207-223
Author(s):  
Tamer Basar ◽  
Mark Salmon
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Problem

EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Arifovic
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
Transitional Dynamics ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Stability Of Equilibria ◽  
Long Run

This paper provides a survey of the applications of evolutionary algorithms in macroeconomic models. Discussion is organized around the issues related to stability of equilibria, equilibrium selection, transitional dynamics, and the long-run evolutionary dynamics different from rational-expectations equilibrium outcomes. The survey also discusses criteria that can be used to evaluate the performance and usefulness of evolutionary algorithms in the macroeconomic context.

STATISTICAL LEARNING WITH TIME-VARYING PARAMETERS

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce McGough
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Statistical Learning ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Stability Parameter ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Varying Parameters ◽  
Time Varying Parameters ◽  
The Stability

In their landmark paper, Bray and Savin note that the constant-parameters model used by their agents to form expectations is misspecified and that, using standard econometric techniques, agents may be able to determine the time-varying nature of the model's parameters. Here, we consider the same type of model as employed by Bray and Savin except that our agents form expectations using a perceived model with parameters that vary with time. We assume agents use the Kalman filter to form estimates of these time-varying parameters. We find that, under certain restrictions on the structure of the stochastic process and on the value of the stability parameter, the model will converge to its rational expectations equilibrium. Further, the restrictions on the stability parameter required for convergence are identical to those found by Bray and Savin.

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