scholarly journals The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. V. B. Swamy ◽  
George S. Tavlas
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve

scholarly journals Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Adhitya Wardhono ◽  
M. Abd. Nasir ◽  
Ciplis Gema Qori’ah ◽  
Yulia Indrawati
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Inflation Model ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moment ◽  
Forward Looking

The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model. The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each country in the ASEAN region.

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Indexed Bonds ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Component Approach ◽  
Unobserved Component Model ◽  
The Uk

Abstract This paper utilizes the information in the inflation-indexed bonds market to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK using an unobserved component approach. The main advantage of this approach comes from using the Kalman filter to explicitly estimate the unobserved expected inflation from the observed break-even inflation rates – the yield difference between the inflation-indexed bonds and the nominal bonds. Our results show that the expected inflation estimated from the unobserved component model plays a significant role in explaining the inflation dynamics in the UK. The evidence also suggests that the estimated inflation expectations are better able to capture the evolution of actual inflation process as compared to the break-even inflation rate as a proxy for expected inflation.

scholarly journals Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Econometrics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Francesca Rondina
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve

scholarly journals Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophocles Mavroeidis ◽  
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller ◽  
James H. Stock
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Weak Identification ◽  
Point Estimates

We review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, paying particular attention to the issue of weak identification. Our goal is to provide a clear understanding of the role of expectations that integrates across the different papers and specifications in the literature. We discuss the properties of the various limited-information econometric methods used in the literature and provide explanations of why they produce conflicting results. Using a common dataset and a flexible empirical approach, we find that researchers are faced with substantial specification uncertainty, as different combinations of various a priori reasonable specification choices give rise to a vast set of point estimates. Moreover, given a specification, estimation is subject to considerable sampling uncertainty due to weak identification. We highlight the assumptions that seem to matter most for identification and the configuration of point estimates. We conclude that the literature has reached a limit on how much can be learned about the New Keynesian Phillips curve from aggregate macroeconomic time series. New identification approaches and new datasets are needed to reach an empirical consensus. (JEL C51, D84, E12, E24, E31)

Inflation expectations and the structure of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 679-683
Author(s):  
Olivier Musy ◽  
Sébastien Pommier
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve

scholarly journals Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin J. Lansing
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Inflation Dynamics

scholarly journals The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?

2008 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Tillmann
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve
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