The Impact of Globalization on Forest Growth: Evidence from Multinational Panel Data

Even though some existing literature has studied the impact of globalization on forest growth, this research remains inconclusive; moreover, little clarification has emerged as to whether the influence of globalization on forest growth is consistent among different countries. To fill this research gap, we investigated the impact of globalization on forest growth and considered what factors could change the influence of the former upon the latter. To empirically investigate these essential issues, we utilized cross-country data covering 108 countries during the period 1991–2018 to conduct a system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimation. The baseline results confirm the positive impact of globalization on forest growth, which is also supported by several robustness tests, such as changing the measurements and setting new samples. Furthermore, an increase in globalization would bring about higher forest growth. Aside from this, two specific dimensions of globalization, namely economics and trade, can also protect forest growth. Additionally, a higher FDI strengthens the positive impact of globalization on forest growth, while aging, industrial share, and CO2 emissions weaken it. Finally, the impact of globalization on forests is weaker in democracies, emerging markets, and countries with higher fiscal freedoms, while it is stronger in countries with higher political stability. Our study provides substantial policy implications for governments participating in international treaties related to forest growth. The structure of this paper is organized as follows.

Accelerating Economic Recovery Post-Covid19 through Strengthening Priority Sectors in ASEAN+6 Countries: A Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Approach

The Covid-19 pandemic has undermined the achievements of economic growth in various countries, including in the Southeast Asia region. The characteristics of the Southeast Asian region, which are based on the agricultural and industrial sectors, have become the foundation for economic recovery efforts. Therefore, this study chose the agricultural and industrial sectors as the database of research. Further, this study aims to analyze the influence of the agricultural sector and the industrial sector on economic growth in ASEAN+6, covering Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. In this study, secondary data will be used for the period from 1991 to 2020 and the sources is from the official website of the World Bank by taking world development indicator data with the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) method. It was found that the share of value-added in the agricultural sector and the industrial sector in the ASEAN+6 has a significant contribution to economic recovery efforts in the region. The increase in these two sectors has shown a real impact on accelerating economic recovery through increased production activity. The findings of this study are expected to be a reference for policies to increase output in the two sectors, encourage economic growth, and accelerate economic recovery in each country.

Influence of digital economy on industrial wastewater discharge: evidence from 281 Chinese prefecture-level cities

The development of digital economy affects environmental pollution emission and green sustainable development. However, the relationship between digital economy and industrial wastewater discharge has rarely been examined. This study establishes the urban digital economy evaluation index system, measures the digital economy indexes of 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2016, and examines the impact effect of digital economy development on industrial wastewater discharge using the system generalized method of moment method and the intermediary effects model. The empirical results indicate that the digital economy reduces the industrial wastewater discharge. As evidence shows, the digital economy significantly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, which is an important factor affecting the industrial wastewater discharge. Additionally, the inhibiting effect of digital economy on industrial wastewater discharge is more significant in big cities. This study provides a scientific base and guidance for reducing environmental pollution emissions and promoting the development of digital economy.

Earnings Response Coefficient, Sharia Online Trading System, and Firm Value

This research aims to examine the nexus between Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC), Sharia Online Trading System (SOTS), and firm value. The research sample was all companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The research model used path analysis employing the regression with common, fixed and random effect models as well as the robustness check through Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). The result demonstrates that ERC and SOTS can’t determine the level of firm values. This research found no effects of ERC and SOTS on firm value, but nexus between ERC and SOTS was found. These findings indicate that ERC and SOTS have no effect at all on the firm value, meanwhile ERC has the negative effect on SOTS. Nevertheless, the result of this research found no intervening effect of SOTS on the ERC and firm Value. It shows that SOTS can’t mediate the nexus between ERC and firm value.

Penerapan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis untuk Pemodelan Ekspor dan Impor di Asean

Perekonomian terbuka di suatu negara adalah negara yang mempunyai kegiatan perdagangan internasional seperti ekspor, impor, barang atau jasa serta dapat meminjam dari hasil pasar modal internasional. Tujuan dari penelitian adalah untuk menganalisis ekspor dan impor di wilayah beberapa negara ASEAN mulai periode tahun 2014 hingga tahun 2019. Metode estimasi parameter model adalah metode GMM (Generalized method of moment) karena penelitian ini menggunakan panel dinamis. Berdasarkan hasil analisis data, variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap model ekspor ASEAN adalah Growth GDP, REER sedangkan variabel GFCF berpengaruh secara negatif. Disamping itu, variabel yang berpengaruh siginifikan positif model impor ASEAN adalah Growth GDP dan Real Effective Exchange Rate.

Trade Intensity, Fiscal Integration and Income Inequality in ECOWAS

This paper analyzes the income inequality effect of economic integration in ECOWAS by decomposing economic integration into two dimensions: trade and fiscal integration approximated respectively by trade intensity and fiscal convergence. For robustness purposes, we use different metrics for each dimension. We also consider the introduction in the region of growth and convergence pact in the analysis of fiscal integration effect on income inequality. The analysis covers the period 1990–2018. For the empirical evidence, the generalized method of moment is used. The results obtained are robust and reveal that improving regional economic integration has a reducing effect on income inequality. Taken individually, trade integration and fiscal integration contribute to reducing income inequality. However, taken together, the reducing effect of economic integration on income inequality is more pronounced. Besides, the results indicate that fiscal integration has more contributed to the reduction of income inequality since the introduction of the first fiscal convergence pact in the region in 2000 than before. For reducing income inequality, our analysis recommends to ECOWAS countries to take steps to remove barriers to regional trade on the one hand, and on the other hand, to converge together on the fiscal front.

Determinants of Current Account Balance in ASEAN+6

The phenomenon of global current account imbalance has made researchers and policy makers provide more attention on current account issues. This phenomenon is illustrated by the US' current account deficit which continues to increase, while ASEAN+6 reaps a surplus. This study aims to study the factors that affect the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6 that have not been explained by previous studies. Based on the dynamic panel model (GMM) used, it was found that the variables Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, and Household Consumption have a significant effect on the aggregate current account in ASEAN+6. On the other hand, the REER and Government Expenditures do not have a significant effect on the ASEAN+6 current account. The benefit of this research is that it can be used for the formulation of current account policies to minimize the government's efforts to overcome a bigger issue: imbalance in balance of payment.Keywords: Current account balance, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6 Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di ASEAN+6Abstrak: Fenomena ketidakseimbangan transaksi berjalan global telah membuat para peneliti dan pembuat kebijakan memberikan perhatian lebih pada masalah transaksi berjalan. Fenomena ini tergambar dari defisit transaksi berjalan AS yang terus meningkat, sedangkan ASEAN+6 menuai surplus. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi neraca transaksi berjalan agregat di ASEAN+6 yang belum dijelaskan oleh penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. Berdasarkan model panel dinamis (GMM) yang digunakan, ditemukan bahwa variabel Lagged-current account, ToT, Exchange Rate Stability, dan Household Consumption berpengaruh signifikan terhadap agregat current account di ASEAN+6. Di sisi lain, REER dan Belanja Pemerintah tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap transaksi berjalan ASEAN+6. Manfaat dari penelitian ini adalah dapat digunakan untuk perumusan kebijakan transaksi berjalan untuk meminimalkan upaya pemerintah mengatasi masalah yang lebih besar: ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran.Kata kunci: Neraca transaksi berjalan, Generalized Method of Moment, ASEAN+6

The convergence of financial sector in Asia

This study aims to identify the convergence of financial sector development and the effect of macroeconomic variables on each financial sector development indicator in Asia. The sample used consists of 24 countries in Asia during the period 2010-2018. Identification of convergence using ?-convergence absolute and conditional. Indicators are used to represent the development of the financial sector namely private credit, liquid liabilities, stock market capitalization, and stock market turnover. Empirical evidence was based on the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation technique. The results showed that there was convergence in Asia and that macroeconomic variables had a significant effect on the development of the financial sector.

Econometric Analysis of Dutch Disease Implication of China-Africa Trade

This study revisits the analysis of the Dutch disease implication of China-Africa trade for Africa’s non-mineral resources sectors; specifically, manufacturing and agricultural sectors, while focusing on the trade relationship between China and 27 African countries for the period of 19years, 2001 to 2019. This prompted an econometric analysis with the use of two-step dynamic (difference and system) panel Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) models, which was also complemented with dynamic least squares panel econometric regression. The preliminary analysis revealed that Ethiopia is the largest African trading partner with China, with an average of about 21percent China-Ethiopia trade ratio, while Botswana has the least trade relation with China, with 1.5percent Botswana-China trade ratio. The result of our econometric analyses suggests that higher China-Africa trade has the potential to reduce Africa’s manufacturing value-added. In other words, China-Africa trade is not causing Dutch disease in Africa but has the potential to cause Dutch disease in the future. Furthermore, the result suggests that higher China-Africa trade has the potential to increase Africa’s agricultural sector productivity. This implies that China-Africa trade has no tendency of causing Dutch disease in the agricultural sector. Our results are robust to different data structures for the dynamic GMM model.

قياس وتحليل آلية عمل ثلاثية العجز وتوءَمة العجز لبلدان منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي باستخدام طريقة العزوم المعمّمة (GMM) للمدّة (2009-2017)

تكشف هذه الورقة عمل وآلية تقدير فرضية العجز الثلاثي في ضوء تلك التطورات التي طرأت في الاقتصاد العالمي، وتبحث هذه الدراسة تجريبيًا العلاقة بين العجز المالي وعجز الحساب الجاري والفجوة الادخارية مع بعض محددات أخرى، والتي تؤثر في المتغير التابع والمتمثلة بأسعار الصرف ودرجة الانفتاح التجاري لـ (21) اقتصاداً لبلدان منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي للمدة (2009-2017). وقد جرت في الأدبيات الاقتصادية قياس العلاقة بين عجز الحساب الجاري والموازنة العامة على نطاق واسع، وقد تطورت هذه العلاقة إلى أن شملت قطاعات أخرى مثل الفجوة الادخارية. استخدمت هذه الدراسة أسلوب نماذج بانل الديناميكية (dynamic panel model)، وبالاعتماد على طريقة العزوم المعمّمة (Generalized Method of Moment GMM) في التقدير، ونموذج تصحيح الخطأ القائم على تقدير كل من (PMG) (Mean Group MG Pooled Mean Group). وتوصّلت الدراسة إلى أن وجود التفاعل بين عجز الموازنة العامة والفجوة الادخارية وعجز الحساب الجاري في الأمدين القصير والبعيد، فضلًا عن سرعة التعديل على المدى القصير للوصول إلى مستوى التوازن على المدى الطويل وهي (%0.51) في السنة. وهذا بعد اختيار النموذج الملائم والمتمثل بالنموذج الأول وهو (PMG). بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فقد وجدت الدراسة بأن هناك دورًا للسياسة المالية والفجوة الادخارية في زيادة عجز الحساب الجاري، كما أشارت نتائج الدراسة إلى وجود إمكانية إجراء فرضية "العجز الثلاثي" لبلدان موضوع الدراسة، وذلك من خلال أثر العجز المالي والفجوة الادخارية في الحساب الجاري؛ إذ يؤدي تزايد العجز في الموازنة والفجوة الادخارية إلى ارتفاع العجز في الحساب الجاري. واستخدمت الدراسة كلاً من التحليل الوصفي فضلاً عن التحليل القياسي لتحليل متغيرات الدراسة من خلال استخدام البرامج (Eviews-10).