Believing in forecasts, uncertainty, and rational expectations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efe A. Ok ◽  
Andrei Savochkin
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Sargent

This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which the author was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. This book engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. It focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, the book finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition includes the author's 2011 Nobel lecture, “United States Then, Europe Now.” It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Barrero

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three facts. (1) Managers are not over-optimistic: sales growth forecasts on average do not exceed realizations. (2) Managers are overprecise (overconfident): they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic after positive shocks and too pessimistic after negative shocks. To quantify the implications of these facts, I estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms use a subjective beliefs process to make forward-looking hiring decisions. Overprecision and overextrapolation lead managers to overreact to firm-level shocks and overspend on adjustment costs, destroying 2.1 percent of the typical firm’s value. Pervasive overreaction leads to excess volatility and reallocation, lowering consumer welfare by 0.5 to 2.3 percent relative to the rational expectations equilibrium. These findings suggest overreaction may amplify asset-price and business cycle fluctuations.


Author(s):  
Stefan Homburg

Chapter 8 concludes the text with methodical remarks. It defends key assumptions made in the main text and compares them, to the extent they deviate, with more conventional premises. The chapter starts with a comparison of adaptive versus rational expectations. Thereafter, it contrasts infinite planning horizons, finite planning horizons, and overlapping generations models. The third section, which is devoted to modeling money, discusses money-in-the-utility, the transaction costs approach, and more recent theories that derive money demand from a microeconomic framework. The forth section shows that assuming a highly elastic labor supply is empirically unconvincing, whereas a constant labor supply simplifies the model greatly and appears as a reasonable approximation. The final section contrasts behavioral and choice theoretic approaches to price setting.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document