scholarly journals Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland

Author(s):  
M. K. Arti ◽  
Antoni Wilinski

AbstractWe investigate the problem of mathematical modeling of new corona virus (COVID-19) in Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to characterize the COVID-19 disease and to predict a new / future wave of COVID-19. This prediction is very much needed to prepare for medical setup and continue with the upcoming program. Specifically, data related to the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day are considered, and then we attempt to predict the data and statistical activity. A close match between actual data and analytical data by using the Gaussian mixture model shows that it is a suitable model to present new cases of COVID-19. In addition, it is thought that there are N waves of COVID-19 and that information for each future wave is also present in current and previous waves as well. Using this concept, predictions of a future wave can be made. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arti M.K. ◽  
Antoni Wilinski

Abstract We investigate the problem of mathematical modeling of new corona virus (Covid19) in Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to characterize the COVID-19 disease and to predict a new / future wave of COVID-19. This prediction is very much needed to prepare for medical setup and continue with the upcoming program. Specifically, data related to the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day are considered, and then we attempt to predict the data and statistical activity. A close match between actual data and analytical data by using the Gaussian mixture model shows that it is a suitable model to present new cases of COVID-19. In addition, it is thought that there are N waves of COVID-19 and that information for each future wave is also present in current and previous waves as well. Using this concept, predictions of a future wave can be made.


2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 642
Author(s):  
Guichao Lin ◽  
Yunchao Tang ◽  
Xiangjun Zou ◽  
Qing Zhang ◽  
Xiaojie Shi ◽  
...  

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