The paper purpose is the effectiveness estimation in the technological equipment use, taking into account its reliability and productivity for defective transmission units of buses.
The problem consists in the determination of time to be spent on repair of bus transmission units taking into account technological equipment reliability. In the paper there is used a probabilistic method for the prediction bus transmission units, and also a method of the dynamics of averages which allow ensuring minimum of costs for units downtime during repair and equipment cost. The need for repair of transmission units (gear box) arises on an average after 650 hours, the average productivity of the bench makes 4.2 bus / hour. The bench fails on the average after 4600 hours of work, the average time of the bench makes 2 hours. In such a way the solution of the problem specified allows analyzing the necessity of time decrease for transmission unit repair to avoid long downtimes of buses in repair areas without negative impact upon high repair quality and safety during the further operation.
Empirical Progress and Truth Approximation by the ‘Hypothetico-Probabilistic Method’