Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference

2021 ◽  
Vol 106 (1) ◽  
pp. 1011-1035
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia ◽  
Karina Hernández-Urbina ◽  
Silvia G. Ramos-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Short Term ◽  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichon

scholarly journals Hazard estimates for El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, México: a statistical approach for complex eruptive histories

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Mendoza-Rosas ◽  
S. De la Cruz-Reyna
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Eruption Rate ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
History Of ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
Recent Eruption ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. The El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México) most recent eruption occurred in 1982 causing the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico. Prior to the eruption, El Chichón volcano was not considered a very hazardous volcano, a perception mostly caused by the low eruption rate of the past eruptions. The correct assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step to prevent a disaster. In this paper, we analyze two periods of the reported eruptive history of El Chichón volcano during the Holocene, searching for the eruption rates of different VEI magnitude categories and testing their time dependence. One period accounting the eruptions of the last 3707 years before the last eruption (BLE) is assumed to be complete, with no missing relevant events. More scarce information of a period extending to 7772 years BLE is then added. We then apply the Non-Homogeneous Generalized Pareto-Poisson Process (NHGPPP), and the Mixture of Exponentials Distribution (MOED) methods to estimate the volcanic hazard of El Chichón considering both periods. The results are compared with the probabilities obtained from the homogeneous Poisson and Weibull distributions. In this case the MOED and the Weibull distribution are rather insensitive to the inclusion of the extended period. In contrast, the NHGPPP is strongly influenced by the extended period.

Source conditions and degradation processes of light hydrocarbons in volcanic gases: an example from El Chichón volcano (Chiapas State, Mexico)

2004 ◽  
Vol 206 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 81-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Capaccioni ◽  
Yuri Taran ◽  
Franco Tassi ◽  
Orlando Vaselli ◽  
Giuliana Mangani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Gases ◽  
Light Hydrocarbons ◽  
Degradation Processes ◽  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichon

Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 955-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Manuel Marrero ◽  
Alicia García ◽  
Angeles Llinares ◽  
Servando De la Cruz-Reyna ◽  
Silvia Ramos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Virtual Tools ◽  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
Volcanic Crisis Management ◽  
El Chichon

Holocene Eruptive Activity of El Chichon Volcano, Chiapas, Mexico

Science ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 224 (4650) ◽  
pp. 747-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. I. TILLING ◽  
M. RUBIN ◽  
H. SIGURDSSON ◽  
S. CAREY ◽  
W. A. DUFFIELD ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eruptive Activity ◽  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichon

Eruption of El Chichon Volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, 28 March to 7 April 1982

Science ◽  
1982 ◽  
Vol 218 (4579) ◽  
pp. 1307-1308 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. HOFFER ◽  
F. G. P. ◽  
P. MUELA
Keyword(s):  
El Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Chichón Volcano ◽  
El Chichon
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