Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique

Mount Pelée (Martinique) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with more than 34 magmatic events in the last 24,000 years, including the deadliest eruption of the 20th century. The current volcanic hazard map used in the civil security plan puts the emphasis on the volcanic hazard close to the volcano. This map is however based on an incomplete eruptive history and does not take into account the variability of the expected source conditions (mass eruption rate, total erupted mass, and grain-size distribution) or the wind effect on ash dispersal. We propose here to refine the volcanic hazard map for tephra fallout by using the 2-D model of ash dispersal HAZMAP. We first simulate the maximum expected eruptive scenario at Mount Pelée (i.e., the P3 eruption) using a seasonal wind profile. Building upon the good agreement with field data, we compute probability maps based on this maximum expected scenario, which show that tephra fallout hazard could threaten not only areas close to the volcano but also the southern part of Martinique. We then use a comprehensive approach based on 16 eruptive scenarios that include new field constraints obtained in the recent years on the past Plinian eruptions of Mount Pelée volcano. Each eruptive scenario considers different values of total erupted mass and mass eruption rate, and is characterized by a given probability of occurrence estimated from the refined eruptive history of the volcano. The 1979-2019 meteorological ERA-5 database is used to further take into account the daily variability of winds. These new probability maps show that the area of probable total destruction is wider when considering the 16 scenarios compared to the maximum expected scenario. The southern part of Martinique, although less threatened than when considering the maximum expected scenario, would still be impacted both by tephra fallout and by its high dependence on the water and electrical network carried from the northern part of the island. Finally, we show that key infrastructures in Martinique (such as the international airport) have a non-negligible probability of being impacted by a future Plinian eruption of the Mount Pelée. These results provide strong arguments for and will support significant and timely reconceiving of the emergency procedures as the local authorities have now placed Mount Pelée volcano on alert level yellow (vigilance) based on increased seismicity and tremor-type signals.

Temporal variations of magma composition, eruption style and rate at Fuji Volcano, Japan

Mt. Fuji is an active basaltic volcano near the Tokyo metropolitan area; future eruptions could thus have serious nationwide impacts. To better understand recent volcanism at Fuji Volcano, we here clarify temporal variations of eruption rate and magma composition since 5.6 ka based on time-series volumetric and geochemical data of eruptive products in a new stratigraphic sequence. Volcanic activity during the studied period consisted of (i) the emission of many lava flows that formed a new volcanic edifice between 5.6 and 3.45 ka, (ii) a period dominated by explosive events both at the summit and on the flanks of the volcano between 3.45 and 2.25 ka, and (iii) a period dominated by flank fissure eruptions since 2.25 ka. The eruption rate (dense-rock equivalent, DRE) was 3.5 km3 DRE/kyr during the edifice-building period, decreased to 0.8 km3 DRE/kyr during the explosive period, and then increased to 2.0 km3 DRE/kyr since 1.5 ka. Erupted magmas were dominantly basaltic and geochemically similar through time, except for increased Sr contents and decreased Ca/Sr ratios during the explosive period. Similarly, the geochemical properties of the parental magmas did not change greatly, although the Sr contents and Ca/Sr ratios of magmas erupted during the explosive period reflect the delayed fractionation of plagioclase due to the increased water contents of the parental magmas at that time.

Constraining the duration of the Tarim flood basalts (northwestern China): CA-TIMS zircon U-Pb dating of tuffs

The Early Permian Tarim large igneous province (LIP) in northwestern China comprises voluminous basaltic lava flows, as well as ultramafic and silicic intrusions. The age and duration of the Tarim LIP remains unclear, and thus the rate of magma production and models of potential environmental effects are uncertain. Here we present high-precision chemical abrasion−isotope dilution−thermal ionization mass spectrometry zircon U-Pb ages for three newly discovered tuff layers interlayered with lava flows in the Kupukuziman and Kaipaizileike formations in the Keping area (Xinjiang, northwest China). The volcanism of the Kupukuziman Formation is constrained to a short duration from 289.77 ± 0.95 to 289.41 ± 0.52 Ma. An age for the overlying Kaipaizileike Formation is 284.27 ± 0.39 Ma, bracketing the duration of the entire eruptive phase of the Tarim flood basalts at ∼5.5 m.y. The low eruption rate and relatively long duration of magmatism is consistent with a plume incubation model for the Tarim LIP.

Development of an Inverse Plume Model for Mass Eruption Rate in Unsteady Conditions

Following volcanic eruptions, forecasters need accurate estimates of mass eruption rate (MER) to appropriately predict the downstream effects. Most analyses use simple correlations or models based on large eruptions at steady conditions, even though many volcanoes feature significant unsteadiness. To address this, a superposition model is developed based on a technique used for spray injection applications, which predicts plume height as a function of the time-varying exit velocity. This model can be inverted, providing estimates of MER using field observations of a plume. The model parameters are optimized using laboratory data for plumes with physically-relevant exit profiles and Reynolds numbers, resulting in predictions that agree to within 10% of measured exit velocities. The model performance is examined using a historic eruption from Stromboli with well-documented unsteadiness, again providing MER estimates of the correct order of magnitude. This method can provide a rapid alternative for real-time forecasting of small, unsteady eruptions.

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 107 kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs—very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.

Comparing Simulations of Umbrella-Cloud Growth and Ash Transport with Observations from Pinatubo, Kelud, and Calbuco Volcanoes

The largest explosive volcanic eruptions produce umbrella clouds that drive ash radially outward, enlarging the area that impacts aviation and ground-based communities. Models must consider the effects of umbrella spreading when forecasting hazards from these eruptions. In this paper we test a version of the advection–dispersion model Ash3d that considers umbrella spreading by comparing its simulations with observations from three well-documented umbrella-forming eruptions: (1) the 15 June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Philippines); (2) the 13 February 2014 eruption of Kelud (Indonesia); and (3) phase 2 of the 22–23 April 2015 eruption of Calbuco (Chile). In volume, these eruptions ranged from several cubic kilometers dense-rock equivalent (DRE) for Pinatubo to about one tenth for Calbuco. In mass eruption rate (MER), they ranged from 108–109 kg s−1 at Pinatubo to 9–16 × 106 kg s−1 at Calbuco. For each case we ran simulations that considered umbrella growth and ones that did not. All umbrella-cloud simulations produced a cloud whose area was within ~25% of the observed cloud by the end of the eruption. By the eruption end, the simulated areas of the Pinatubo, Kelud, and Calbuco clouds were 851, 53.2, and 100 × 103 km2 respectively. These areas were 2.2, 2.2, and 1.5 times the areas calculated in simulations that ignored umbrella growth. For Pinatubo and Kelud, the umbrella simulations provided better agreement with the observed cloud area than the non-umbrella simulations. Each of these simulations extended 24 h from the eruption start. After the eruption ended, the difference in cloud area (umbrella minus non-umbrella) at Pinatubo persisted for many hours; at Kelud it diminished and became negative after 14 h and at Calbuco it became negative after ~23 h. The negative differences were inferred to result from the fact that non-umbrella simulations distributed ash over a wider vertical extent in the plume, and that wind shear spread the cloud out in multiple directions. Thus, for some smaller eruptions, wind shear can produce a larger cloud than might be produced by umbrella spreading alone.

4-Hexylresorcinol Administration Increases Dental Hard Tissue Formation and Incisor Eruption Rate in Rats

Dental hard tissue formation and bone turnover are required for tooth eruption. 4-Hexylresorcinol (4HR) accelerates tooth movement by increasing bone turnover in orthodontic treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the following: (1) the effect of 4HR application on the expression of proteins associated with tooth formation, and (2) the effect of 4HR application on mandibular incisor eruption rate in a rat model. Primary cultured pulp cells received either 4HR (1 to 100 µM) or solvent only; western blotting was performed for transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-β1), bone morphogenic protein-2/4 (BMP-2/4), runt-related transcription factor 2 (Runx2), osterix (OSX), dentin sialophosphoprotein (DSPP), and parathyroid hormone-related protein receptor (PTHrP-R). In in vivo study, rats (15 males and 15 females) received either solvent or 0.128 mg/kg or 12.8 mg/kg of 4HR via subcutaneous injection; mandibular incisor eruption rate was subsequently recorded. Immunohistochemical staining and western blotting for TGF-β1, BMP-2/4, Runx2, OSX, DSPP, and PTHrP-R were performed in the mandibular tissue samples. 4HR administration was found to increase TGF-β1, BMP-2/4, Runx2, OSX, DSPP, and PTHrP-R expression in both cell culture and tissue samples. Immunohistochemical staining of some markers showed site-specific expression, thereby indicating programmed differentiation of odontoblasts and ameloblasts. The eruption rate was significantly higher in the 12.8 mg/kg 4HR-administered group than in the untreated control (p = 0.001 and 0.010 for males and females, respectively). Collectively, 4HR administration increased the expression of markers related to dental hard tissue formation and accelerated the eruption rate of incisors in rats.

Recent eruption history inferred from eruption ages of the two latest lava flows using multi-dating at Yokodake Volcano, Japan

Reconstruction of the eruption history of an active volcano is necessary to elucidate its volcanic activity and to assess the probability of its volcanic eruption. Yokodake volcano in central Japan is the only active volcano among the Yatsugatake volcano group. It has effused nine lava flows, most of which have not been dated. For this study, we ascertained the eruption ages of the latest lava (Y9) and second most recent lava (Y8) using radiocarbon (14C), thermoluminescence (TL), and paleomagnetic dating methods. Results revealed the eruption ages of the two lava flows and the recent eruption history of Yokodake volcano. Yokodake volcano effused its Y8 lava flow at ca. 3.4 ka, ejected NYk-2 tephra with explosive eruption at ca. 2.4–2.2 ka, and effused the Y9 lava flow associated with Y9-T tephra at ca. 0.6 ka. Magma eruption rates of Yokodake at 34 ky and 3.4 ky were estimated as about 9 × 10−3 km3/ky and 1 × 10−2 km3/ky, indicating a stable eruption rate maintained during the past 34 ky. This result suggests that Yokodake volcano retains some potential for eruption, although the volcanic activity of the Yatsugatake volcanoes (10−1–10−2 km3/ky) has weakened over time.