In late 1999, the German government made a surprise announcement that it would repeal the large and long-standing capital gains tax on sales of corporate crossholdings effective in 2002. The repeal has been hailed as a revolutionary step toward breaking up the extensive web of crossholdings among German companies. The lock-in effect from the large corporate capital gains tax was said to act as a barrier to efficient acquisition and divestiture of German firms and divisions. Many observers predicted that once the lock-in effect was removed, Germany would experience a flurry of acquisition and divestiture activity. Several other industrialized countries were poised to follow suit, with similar proposals pending in France, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
This paper provides evidence of the economic impact of the repeal by examining its effect on the market values of German firms. While event studies of tax legislation can be difficult, our study is aided by the fact that the repeal was both a surprise and was announced separately from other tax reform proposals. In addition, we provide cross-sectional evidence on the economic magnitude of the repeal, assess the likely beneficiaries from the repeal, and predict which sectors are most likely to experience a surge in acquisition and divestiture activity following the repeal.
Our results suggest that the economic effects are highly concentrated. We find a positive association between firms' event period abnormal returns and the extent of their crossholdings, consistent with taxes acting as a barrier to efficient allocation of ownership. However, the reaction is limited to the six largest banks and insurers and their extensive minority holdings in industrial firms. These six large firms have a combined market capitalization equal to 22 percent of all 394 firms in this study. We also find evidence of a positive stock price response to the announcement for industrial companies held by these financial firms, consistent with shareholders in those firms benefiting from the likely reduction in investor-level tax burdens and expected increased efficiency following the tax law change.
The Lock-In Effect of the Capital Gains Tax: Some Time Series Evidence
