Trajectories of Spatial Assimilation or Place Stratification? A Typology of Residence and Workplace Histories of Newly Arrived Migrants in Sweden

In most societies, resources and opportunities are concentrated in neighborhoods and workplaces occupied by the host population. The spatial assimilation and place stratification theories propose trajectories (the sequences of events) leading to minority and migrant access to or exclusion from these advantageous places. However, most previous research on these theories did not ask whether such theorized trajectories occur. We apply sequence analysis to decade-long residence and workplace histories of newly arrived migrants in Sweden to identify a typology of combined residence-work trajectories. The seven types of trajectories in our typology are characterized by varying degrees of proximity to the host population in residential neighborhoods and workplaces and by different patterns of change in such proximity over time. The pivotal role of socioeconomic gains in spatial assimilation, posited by the namesake theory, is not supported, as we do not find that migrant employment precedes residence alongside the host population. The importance of housing-market discrimination for migrants’ exclusion from host-dominated spaces, posited by place stratification theory, is only weakly supported, as we find that migrants from less affluent countries accumulate disadvantage over time, likely due to discrimination in both the labor and housing markets. Our findings also underscore the need for new theories explaining migrant residential outcomes which apply to contexts where migrant-dense neighborhoods are still forming.

Long-run drivers and integration in interprovincial Canadian housing price relations

Purpose This paper aims to examine the integration of housing markets in Canada by examining housing price data (1999–2016) of six metropolitan areas in different provinces, namely, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax. The authors test for cointegration, driver cities of long-run relationships, long-run Granger causality and instantaneous causality in light of the global financial crisis (GFC) (2007–2008). Design/methodology/approach The authors use Johansen’s system cointegration approach with structural breaks. Moving average representation is used for common stochastic trend(s) analysis. Finally, the authors apply vector error correction model-based Granger causality and instantaneous causality. Findings Cities’ housing prices are in long-run equilibrium. Post-crisis Canadian housing markets became more integrated. The Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal markets drive the Canadian housing market, leading all cities toward long-run equilibrium. Strong long-run Granger causality exists, but the authors observe no instantaneous causality. Price information takes time to disseminate, and long-run price adjustments play a significant role in causation. Practical implications The findings of cointegration increasing after the GFC and strong lead–lag can be used by investors to arbitrage and optimize portfolios. This can also help national and local policymakers in mitigating risk. Incorporating these findings can lead to better price forecasting. Originality/value This study presents many novelties for the Canadian housing market: it is the first to use repeat-sales regional pricing indices to test long-run behaviors, conduct common stochastic trend analyzes and present causality relations.

Urban Containment Planning: Is It Effective? The Case of Portland, OR

The paper attempts to evaluate Oregon’s and Portland’s growth management policies as for their tradeoffs between effectiveness in containing urban sprawl and impacts on housing markets and on property values. Carruthers argued that in order to correctly evaluate growth management policies, it is necessary to jointly consider their effects on urban development patterns, on land and housing markets, and on the fragmentation of land use controls. Nowadays, we have sufficient empirical research to evaluate the effects of Oregon’s growth management policies both on land markets and housing affordability and on urban development patterns. Therefore, the time has come to comprehensively reanalyze this longstanding case of public regulation. Once again, the issue of comparing grounded-on-planning–regulations’ effectiveness with grounded-on-price regulations’ effectiveness is at stake. The paper finds that urban-containment centralized-planning in Portland and Oregon have not been effective in containing sprawl and that price-based mechanisms are the most logical solution to the excess of sprawling urban growth.

Complexity Economics in a Time of Crisis: Heterogeneous Agents, Interconnections, and Contagion

In this article, we consider a variety of different mechanisms through which crises such as COVID-19 can propagate from the micro-economic behaviour of individual agents through to an economy’s aggregate dynamics and subsequently spill over into the global economy. Our central theme is one of changes in the behaviour of heterogeneous agents, agents who differ in terms of some measure of size, wealth, connectivity, or behaviour, in different parts of an economy. These are illustrated through a variety of case studies, from individuals and households with budgetary constraints, to financial markets, to companies composed of thousands of small projects, to companies that implement single multi-billion dollar projects. In each case, we emphasise the role of data or theoretical models and place them in the context of measuring their inter-connectivity and emergent dynamics. Some of these are simple models that need to be `dressed’ in socio-economic data to be used for policy-making, and we give an example of how to do this with housing markets, while others are more similar to archaeological evidence; they provide hints about the bigger picture but have yet to be unified with other results. The result is only an outline of what is possible but it shows that we are drawing closer to an integrated set of concepts, principles, and models. In the final section, we emphasise the potential as well as the limitations and what the future of these methods hold for economics.

Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies in the UK

We examine whether regionally differentiated macroprudential policies can address financial stability concerns and moderate house price differences in the UK. We disaggregate both the household sector and the housing stock in a two-region DSGE model with out of sync subnational housing markets and compare four policy types: standard monetary policy, leaning against the wind monetary policy, national macroprudential policy or one that targets region-specific LTV ratios. In terms of reducing variances of house prices, regionally differentiated macroprudential policy performs best, provided the policy authorities are concerned with stabilising output and house prices rather than simply minimising the variance of inflation.