An Experimental Study on the Effects of Communication, Credibility, and Clustering in Network Games

We examine how pre-play communication and clustering affect play in a challenging hybrid experimental game on networks. Free-form chat is impressively effective in achieving the non-equilibrium efficient outcome, but restricted communication has little effect. We support this result with a model about the credibility of cheap-talk messages. We also offer a model of message diffusion that correctly predicts more rapid diffusion without clustering. We show an interaction effect of network structure and communication technologies. A remarkable result is that restricted communication is quite effective in a network Stag Hunt, but not in our extended game.

Judging under Public Pressure

We study the circumstances under which public pressure affects judging. We show that crowd pressure biases decisions in favor of the crowd for “subjective decisions” with respect to which the judge has more discretion, but not for “objective decisions.” The bias is strengthened after a judge's error against the crowd, and when errors are costlier to the crowd. We use data about referees' decisions and errors from the Bundesliga. We exploit three regimes where, due to the introduction of Video Assistance Refereeing (VAR) and COVID-19, both crowd pressure and the likelihood of errors vary.

Understanding the Rise in Life Expectancy Inequality

We provide a novel decomposition of changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability”. Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex-ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex-post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Declines in cardiovascular mortality benefited rich and poor, but inequality increased because of differences in lifestyle-related survivability.

How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.?

We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement and find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers' responses to the FRA.

(Non-)Parametric Recoverability of Preferences and Choice Prediction

Simple functional forms for utility require restrictive structural assumptions that are often contrary to observed behavior. Even so, they are widely used in applied economic research. I address this issue using a two-part adaptive experimental design to compare the predictions of a popular parametric model of decision making under risk to those of non-parametric bounds on indifference curves. Interpreting the latter as an approximate upper bound, I find the parametric model sacrifices very little in terms of predictive success. This suggests that, despite their restrictiveness, simple functional forms may nevertheless be useful representations of preferences over risky alternatives.

Spending Response to a Predictable Increase in Mortgage Repayments: Evidence from Expiring Interest-Only Loans

We study how homeowners' consumption responds to a negative and anticipated disposable income shock: the beginning of the amortization period on interest-only mortgages. We identify spending behavior through an event study approach, by matching loan-level data that covers the universe of Danish mortgages to detailed administrative registries on borrowers. In response to an average increase in installments worth 9 percent of income, consumption drops by 3 percent of income, when amortization begins. The reduction in expenditure is persistent. Borrowers who fail to smooth consumption are highly leveraged and likely to be denied a new interest-only loan, upon expiration.

Personal Bests and Gender

We connect two large bodies of scientific inquiry. First, important theories in the social sciences establish that human preferences are reference-dependent. Second, a separate field of research documents substantial differences in preferences and attitudes across genders. Specifically, we examine the universe of official classic chess games (more than 250,000 subjects and 22 million games). This allows us to study differences across genders both in cognitive performance (intensive margin) and in competitive participation (extensive margin), using the fact that personal bests act as reference points. We find that males and females behave very differently around their personal bests in both margins.

Violence and Financial Decisions: Evidence from Mobile Money in Afghanistan

We provide evidence that violence reduces the adoption and use of mobile money in three separate empirical settings in Afghanistan. First, analyzing nationwide mobile money transaction logs, we find that users exposed to violence reduce use of mobile money. Second, using panel survey data from a field experiment, we show that subjects expecting violence are significantly less likely to respond to random inducements to use mobile money. Finally, analyzing nationwide financial survey data, we find that individuals expecting violence hold more cash. Collectively, this evidence suggests that violence can impede the growth of formal financial systems.

Positive Spillovers from Infrastructure Investment: How Pipeline Expansions Encourage Fuel Switching

This paper studies the role of the U.S. pipeline infrastructure in the country's transition from coal to natural gas energy. I leverage the EPA's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards as a plausibly exogenous intervention, which encouraged many coal plants to convert to natural gas. Combining this quasi-experimental variation with a plant's preexisting proximity to the pipeline network, I isolate implied pipeline connection costs within a dynamic discrete choice model of plant conversions. Key model results indicate that infrastructure-related costs prevent $9 billion in emissions reductions from taking place, suggesting a $2.4 million per mile external benefit of pipeline expansions.

How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?

Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions. However, the necessary agricultural expansion may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle the roles of acreage and yields in the supply of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. The model is estimated using remote sensing (satellite) information of sugarcane activities. Estimates imply that, at the margin, 92% of new ethanol comes from increases in area and only 8% from increases in yield. Direct deforestation accounts for 19% of area expansion at the margin in the long-run. I further assess carbon emissions and deforestation implications from ethanol policies.