Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

2011 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1298-1311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Grazia De Giorgi ◽  
Antonio Ficarella ◽  
Marco Tarantino
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction and Error Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 1851-1857
Author(s):  
Rui Ma ◽  
Ling Ling Wang ◽  
Shu Ju Hu
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
System Operation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power System Operation ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Time Series Method

The prediction accuracy of wind power is important to the power system operation. Based on BP neural network used to forecast directly and time-series method used to forecast indirectly, the output wind power prediction of 4 hours in advance was studied in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance of direct prediction is better, and the reason for that was analyzed in the paper. Finally, error analysis of prediction was researched. Comprehensive evaluation of prediction error which contains horizontal and longitudinal error evaluation was proposed.

scholarly journals Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models

2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 475-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Pierre Pinson ◽  
George Kariniotakis ◽  
Henrik Aa. Nielsen ◽  
Torben S. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Prediction Systems

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term windpower prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.

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