Wind Power Prediction in View of Ramping Events Based on Classified Spatiotemporal Network

Wind energy has been connected to the power system on a large scale with the advantage of little pollution and large reserves. While ramping events under the influence of extreme weather will cause damage to the safe and stable operation of power system. It is significant to promote the consumption of renewable energy by improving the power prediction accuracy of ramping events. This paper presents a wind power prediction model of ramping events based on classified spatiotemporal network. Firstly, the spinning door algorithm builds parallelograms to identify ramping events from historical data. Due to the rarity of ramping events, the serious shortage of samples restricts the accuracy of the prediction model. By using generative adversarial network for training, simulated ramping data are generated to expand the database. After obtaining sufficient data, classification and type prediction of ramping events are carried out, and the type probability is calculated. Combined with the probability weight, the spatiotemporal neural network considering numerical weather prediction data is used to realize power prediction. Finally, the effectiveness of the model is verified by the actual measurement data of a wind farm in Northeast China.

Two-Stage Robust and Economic Scheduling for Electricity-Heat Integrated Energy System under Wind Power Uncertainty

As renewable energy increasingly penetrates into electricity-heat integrated energy system (IES), the severe challenges arise for system reliability under uncertain generations. A two-stage approach consisting of pre-scheduling and re-dispatching coordination is introduced for IES under wind power uncertainty. In pre-scheduling coordination framework, with the forecasted wind power, the robust and economic generations and reserves are optimized. In re-dispatching, the coordination of electric generators and combined heat and power (CHP) unit, constrained by the pre-scheduled results, are implemented to absorb the uncertain wind power prediction error. The dynamics of building and heat network is modeled to characterize their inherent thermal storage capability, being utilized in enhancing the flexibility and improving the economics of IES operation; accordingly, the multi-timescale of heating and electric networks is considered in pre-scheduling and re-dispatching coordination. In simulations, it is shown that the approach could improve the economics and robustness of IES under wind power uncertainty by taking advantage of thermal storage properties of building and heat network, and the reserves of electricity and heat are discussed when generators have different inertia constants and ramping rates.

Wind Power Forecasting with Deep Learning Networks: Time-Series Forecasting

Studies have demonstrated that changes in the climate affect wind power forecasting under different weather conditions. Theoretically, accurate prediction of both wind power output and weather changes using statistics-based prediction models is difficult. In practice, traditional machine learning models can perform long-term wind power forecasting with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 10% to 17%, which does not meet the engineering requirements for our renewable energy project. Deep learning networks (DLNs) have been employed to obtain the correlations between meteorological features and power generation using a multilayer neural convolutional architecture with gradient descent algorithms to minimize estimation errors. This has wide applicability to the field of wind power forecasting. Therefore, this study aimed at the long-term (24–72-h ahead) prediction of wind power with an MAPE of less than 10% by using the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) algorithm of DLNs. In our experiment, we performed TCN model pretraining using historical weather data and the power generation outputs of a wind turbine from a Scada wind power plant in Turkey. The experimental results indicated an MAPE of 5.13% for 72-h wind power prediction, which is adequate within the constraints of our project. Finally, we compared the performance of four DLN-based prediction models for power forecasting, namely, the TCN, long short-term memory (LSTM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and gated recurrence unit (GRU) models. We validated that the TCN outperforms the other three models for wind power prediction in terms of data input volume, stability of error reduction, and forecast accuracy.