Forecasting crude oil price volatility out-of-sample using news-based geopolitical risk index: What forms of nonlinearity help improve forecast accuracy the most?

2021 ◽  
pp. 102310
Author(s):  
Nima Nonejad
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Out Of Sample

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (“ZSE”)’s Exposure to Global Crude Oil Price Volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Washington Chiwanza ◽  
Walter Gachira ◽  
Dingilizwe Nkomo ◽  
Runesu Chikore
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility
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