Contesting Austerity

Despite the historical and political similarities between Portugal and Spain, the contentious responses to austerity diverged in terms of number, rhythm and players. This book compares the contentious responses to austerity in Portugal and Spain during the Eurozone crisis and the Great Recession between 2008 and 2015. While in Spain a sustained wave of mobilisation lasted for three years, involving various players and leading to a transformation of the party system, in Portugal social movements were only able to mobilise in specific instances, trade unions dominated protest and, by the end of the cycle, institutional change was limited. Contesting Austerity shows that the different trajectories and outcomes in these two countries are connected to the nature and configurations of the players in the mobilisation process. While in Spain actors’ relative autonomy from one another led to deeper political transformation, in Portugal the dominance of the institutional actors limited the extent of that change.

Stuck in a Time Warp? The Great Recession and the Socio-occupational Integration of Migrants in Spain

This article examines the socio-occupational integration of the immigrant population in Spain for a time span that, for the first time, includes the post-crisis period. Using the Spanish Labour Force Survey and conducting a socio-occupational analysis, we predict the probability that a migrant would be employed in one socio-occupational class over another in three periods: before, during and after the crisis. Our main research questions are as follows: (1) To what extent do migrants tend to be located in certain socio-occupational classes? (2) To what extent does the likelihood of belonging to a certain socio-occupational class differ according to immigrants’ places of origin? (3) Can differences be found in the likelihood of belonging to a certain socio-occupational class according to the places of origin before, during and after the Great Recession? The results show a very unequal distribution of immigrants in the socio-occupational structure according to their origin. While immigrants from Schengen Europe and North America are better located in the occupational structure, those from Eastern Europe and Africa are over-represented in the lower socio-occupational classes.

An Ex-Post Analysis of the 2004 Olympic Effect

This paper evaluates the effects of the Olympic Games of 2004 hosted in Athens on Greece’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as estimated in Papanikos (1999). The estimates were made in 1997 for a period of fourteen years, 1998-2011, based on various scenarios. During this period two events have had a great impact on GDP that could have been predicted in 1997. Firstly, Greece adopted the euro in 2002, and even though this was pretty much a possibility in 1997, but not of course a certainty, the most important effect of the euro would have come from its exchange value vis-a-vis major currencies of countries with Greece was trading. This included tourism. Despite what many economists thought at the time, the introduction of the euro was not accompanied by a devaluation, but by unprecedented overvaluation. This had a negative impact on Greek GDP. Secondly, the Great Recession hit the Greek economy hard starting in 2008. These two effects had a negative impact on Greek GDP, wiping out the expected positive effects of the Olympic Games. Keywords: Olympic Games, GDP, Athens 2004, euro, great recession

What Accounts for the German Labor Market Miracle? A Structural VAR Approach

This study examines the driving forces behind the strong decline in German unemployment from 2005 onwards and the exceptionally small increase during the Great Recession. Structural vector autoregressions (VARs) with sign restrictions show that wage moderation in the aftermath of labor market reforms was the dominant factor of the unemployment decline, and that improved matching and shrinking labor supply also contributed to it. The adjustment to business cycle shocks (Great Recession), on the other hand, is to a large extent borne by the intensive margin, which can be explained by institutional aspects of the German labor market.

Family Self-Sufficiency Program Outcomes for Participants Enrolling During and After the Great Recession

Utilizing administrative data from the Family Self-Sufficiency (FSS) Program operated by the Denver Housing Authority, four program outcomes, (a) savings and escrow growth, (b) credit and debt reduction, (c) employment and earnings, and (d) positive exits from subsidized housing, are examined to assess if any differences exist between participants ( n = 424) who enrolled during or after the Great Recession. Propensity score matching with replacement was employed to match FSS enrollees. Compared to post-Great Recession enrollees, results suggest that enrollees entering the program during the Great Recession were more likely to reduce their monthly contractual debt and derogatory debt, increase monthly earned income, and remain in the FSS Program longer. Findings suggest that attaining participant financial capability goals is possible during severe economic shocks and may provide vulnerable families with additional capacity to weather such shocks.

The Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Risk Factors and Option-Implied Expected Market Risk Premia: An International Perspective

Institutional investors often have to decide which strategy to use across international business cycles. This is especially important during economic and financial crises. The exogenous nature of the outbreak of the dramatic COVID-19 crisis represents a unique opportunity to understand the performance of risk factors during severe economic times across international stock markets. Even more important is to analyze how these factors behave across very different economic crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession. Although, the overall results show that the momentum and quality factors are the winners, with the value factor as the loser, this research also reports different responses of factors across crises and countries. The size, value, and defensive factors tend to perform worse during the health crisis relative to the Great Recession, while the momentum factor shows a poor performance during the financial crisis, but a positive one during the outbreak of COVID-19. The quality factor is an extraordinary defensive factor in both crises. Similarly, this paper reports heterogeneous responses of option-implied expected market risk premia across alternative stock market indices, and between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis.