Ricardian Equivalence revisited: introductory notes

ABSTRACT These notes aim to revisit the debate, the model, the results, and main objections to the validity of the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem as presented in Barro (1974). It is intended to explore his thesis that tax and debt are equivalent and have no real effect on perceived wealth, demand, the real interest rate or on the economy. The thesis refers to the analysis of the ways of financing debt at a given level of government expenditure and does not address the effects of an expansion of this volume of spending, nor it specifically analyzes the effects of an increase in public debt due to a tax reduction policy. After this presentation, the thesis is debated, consolidating some of the premises that are necessary to validate it. The purpose of the paper is to explore the first round of debates on the theme, explaining the restrictions to which the Barro-Ricardo Theorem or the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem is subject, based on the publications by Barro (1976), Buchanan (1976) and Feldstein (1976), all of them within the ‘realm’ of economic orthodoxy. The final section presents some remarks and an analysis of Barro’s later work (1989 and 1996).

Optimal Asset Allocation for CRRA and CARA Insurers under the Vasicek Interest Rate Model

This paper considers the reinsurance-investment problem with interest rate risks under constant relative risk aversion and constant absolute risk aversion preferences, respectively. Stochastic control theory and dynamic programming principle are applied to investigate the optimal proportional reinsurance-investment strategy for an insurer under the Vasicek stochastic interest rate model. Solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation via the Legendre transform approach, the optimal premium allocation strategies maximizing the expected utilities of terminal wealth are derived. In addition, several sensitivity analyses and numerical illustrations are given to analyze the impacts of different risk preferences and interest rate fluctuation on the optimal strategies. We find that the asset allocation and reinsurance ratio of the insurer are correlated with risk preference coefficient and interest rate fluctuation, and the insurance company may adjust the reinsurance-investment strategy to deal with interest rate risk.

Effects of Government's Policy in Stock Price: A Case of Nepse

The purpose of this study is to find out the relationship of government's policy on the price movement of Nepal stock exchange (NEPSE). This study followed a case study research design, because it offers a deeper perspective and clearer understanding of the stock price movement of Nepalese joint venture banks. The sample size of this study consists of five joint venture commercial Banks, economic analysis and survey reports conducted by central bank of Nepal (Nepal Rastra Bank).The judgmental sampling method has been applied for selection of joint venture banks. The study was totally based on secondary data. in order to make proper analysis descriptive and inferential statistics were used using SPSS software version 26. The finding of this study revealed that the GDP and import are inversely associated with stock price movement and CRR, export, interest rate and inflation are positively associated with stock price movement. Further, it is found that the macroeconomic variables are key factors to determine the Nepalese stock price movement. More importantly, stock market has been found to respond significantly to changes in the government policy. It is recommended that CRR, EXPORT, INTEREST RATE and INFLATION are major factors which largely affect the stock price movement of NEPSE. GDP and IMPORT are not compliance with the stock price movement as they produce negative association with the stocks volatility.

Significance of Tourism Budget, Inflation, and Interest Rate on Economic Growth in Indonesia for the Year of 2011-2020

This study is aimed to investigate the relationship of tourism budget, inflation, interest rate on economic growth in Indonesia in 2011 – 2020. Data was gathered from Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik/BPS) and Ministry of Finance (Kementerian Keuangan/Kemenkeu). The data were analyzed using the multiple regression analysis after fulfilling all of the classical assumption tests. It showed that the inflation and interest rate have significant positive impact while tourism budget has insignificant negative impact on economic growth. In this case, monetary policy tends to be efficiently implemented at the level of promoting growth. However, Indonesia is still early on hoping significant contribution of tourism sector. Keywords: Tourism Budget, Inflation, Interest Rate, Economic Growth, GDP, Multiple Regression Analysis.

Does External Debt Service Devalue Local Currency in the Long Run? Empirical Evidence from Egypt

The aim of this study is to identify the extent to which there is an effect of external debt service on the exchange rate in Egypt in the long run, where the change in the exchange rate has great importance in changing currency value and thus affecting its function as a store of value and a standard for forward payments and then in the redistribution of income and wealth, It also has an effect on some macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, exports, imports, and thus the current account. The study examines the estimation of the long-run relationship between the external debt service and the exchange rate in Egypt in the period 1980-2019 and relies on the exchange rate of the dollar against the Egyptian pound as a dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were the external debt service, gross capital formation, broad money growth, deposit interest rate, household final consumption expenditure, gross savings, and terms of trade adjustment. The methodology is based on Vector Error Correction (VEC) and the study concluded that there is a significant long-term relationship between the value of the Egyptian pound and all the variables explained in the study, as the error correction coefficient is negative and significant. Also, there is an inverse statistically significant relationship between the value of the Egyptian pound and each of the external debt service, the deposit interest rate, and gross savings; any change of 1% in the external debt service, the deposit interest rate, and gross savings leads to a devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar by 4.8%, 0.04%, and 0.05%, respectively. The study also concluded that there is a positive, statistically significant relationship in the long term between the value of the Egyptian pound and each of gross capital formation, broad money growth, households' and NPISHs' final consumption expenditure, and terms of trade adjustment, as any change of 1% in these variables leads to an increase in the value of the Egyptian pound by 0.16%, 0.05%, 0.27%, and 6%, respectively. This study recommends that decision makers consider all the reasons that would reduce the external debt service in order to preserve the value of the Egyptian currency in the long run.

Feasibility Study Fishing Tour Project in Dongkal Village, East Pondok Jagung, North Serpong, South Tangerang City, Banten

The purpose of writing a feasibility study paper on fishing tourism business is to assist the village government in realizing increased economic growth for the community around village. The author also wants to carry out several feasibility measurements in a project development by analyzing, viewing and measuring several measurement indicators using the Net Present Value method, Internal Return Rate, Cost Benefit Ratio, Return on Investment, and Return on Investment Period. Based on the results of the analysis of the financial feasibility test with this method, the authors use a loan interest rate of 11% per year to operate. From the calculation results obtained a positive number of Net Present Value of Rp. 493,276 million, the value of the Internal Rate of Return 12.1388% > 11% (Interest Rate), the value of the Cost Benefit Ratio 1.5165 > 1, with a payback period of 3.0825 years < 5 years (Bank loan repayment period).