Shifting balances of systemic risk in the Chinese banking sector: Determinants and trends

Author(s):  
Eugene Nivorozhkin ◽  
Ilias Chondrogiannis
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7954
Author(s):  
Tonmoy Choudhury ◽  
Simone Scagnelli ◽  
Jaime Yong ◽  
Zhaoyong Zhang

Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic defaults. Given that Chinese markets deliver weak signals of forthcoming stress in banking sectors, new policy intervention is crucial to resolve the hidden stress in the system. The results have important policy implications and will provide scholars and policymakers further insight into the risk contagion originating from interbank networks.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene Nivorozhkin ◽  
Ilias Chondrogiannis

Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Gary W. Van Vuuren ◽  
Anmar Pretorius

Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmad Naheem

PurposeThis paper aims to review some of the current challenges that international money laundering schemes are posing in the Chinese banking sector. Anti-money laundering (AML) systems in China are relatively new, and customer due diligence checks and other AML systems are underdeveloped in some areas.Design/methodology/approachThe paper considers a particular case example of a multi-company organization that has known links to China. This company has been the target of both European and US investigations for suspected embezzlement and money laundering, and yet is still in operation.FindingsThe paper considers the complexities of this organization and how a seemly innocent link to a used clothing charity can fund an international organization spanning several countries. The paper offers a list of basic indicators of risk that could be applied to a risk-based system used within the Chinese banking context by using this group as an example.Originality/valueThe paper uses empirical and academic studies from other authors working in this region and supports many of the findings of the need to develop stronger risk-based, as opposed to rules-based, systems for managing AML risk assessment. Previous work by the author and suggestions from other authors are both used to suggest a basic framework for AML risk assessment. The paper concludes by reiterating the fact that China, like all other countries, is now operating in an international banking context, in much the same way that international organized crime is also operating at a global level.


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