A correction to make Chao estimator conservative when the number of sampling occasions is finite

2021 ◽  
pp. 109154
Author(s):  
Alessio Farcomeni ◽  
Francesco Dotto
Keyword(s):  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Xuan Mao ◽  
Sijia Zhang ◽  
Zhilin Liao

Author(s):  
Dankmar Böhning ◽  
Irene Rocchetti ◽  
Antonello Maruotti ◽  
Heinz Holling

AbstractA major open question, affecting the policy makers decisions, is the estimation of the true size of COVID-19 infections. Most of them are undetected, because of a large number of asymptomatic cases. We provide an efficient, easy to compute and robust lower bound estimator for the number of undetected cases. A “modified” version of the Chao estimator is proposed, based on the cumulative time-series distribution of cases and deaths. Heterogeneity has been accounted for by assuming a geometrical distribution underlying the data generation process. An (approximated) analytical variance formula has been properly derived to compute reliable confidence intervals at 95%. An application to Austrian situation is provided and results from other European Countries are mentioned in the discussion.


2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Budka ◽  
Agnieszka Łacka ◽  
Krzysztof Szoszkiewicz

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