IMPLEMENTASI PAKET SHINY PADA PEMODELAN MULTISCALE AUTOREGRESSIVE UNTUK DATA HARGA SAHAM BBRI

Stocks are an investment that attract people because they can earn large profits by having claim rights to the company's income and assets so investors have to observe stock price movements in the future to achieve investment goals. One of the statistical methods for time series data modeling is ARIMA. However, modeling assumptions must be fulfilled to use that method so an alternative model is proposed, namely nonparametric regression model, which has no modeling assumptions requirement. In this study, the nonparametric regression multiscale autoregressive (MAR) with two different filter and decomposition level J are compared to choose the best model and forecast it. The data are closing stock price, high stock price and low stock price of BBRI’s stocks that divided into 2 parts, namely in sample data from March 19, 2020 to February 4, 2021 to form a model and out sample data from February 5, 2021 to March 23, 2021 used for evaluation of model performance based on MAPE values. The chosen best model for each stock price are the MAR model with wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the closing stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.194%, the MAR model with wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the high stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.283%, and the MAR model with a wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the low stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.141%, indicating that the models have excellent forecasting capability. In this study, Graphical User Interface (GUI) using R software with the help of shiny package is also built, making data analyzing easier and generating more interactive display output.

Consistency properties for the wavelet estimator in nonparametric regression model with dependent errors

In this paper, we establish the pth mean consistency, complete consistency, and the rate of complete consistency for the wavelet estimator in a nonparametric regression model with m-extended negatively dependent random errors. We show that the best rates can be nearly $O(n^{-1/3})$ O ( n − 1 / 3 ) under some general conditions. The results obtained in the paper markedly improve and extend some corresponding ones to a much more general setting.

Spline Nonparametric Regression Model for Local Revenue in Central Sulawesi

Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) is all regional revenue that comes from the region's original economic resources. It is very important to identify it by researching and determining the Regional Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) by properly researching and managing the source of revenue so as to provide maximum results. Central Sulawesi Province itself has Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) in the Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget of the 2018 Budget Year has reached Rp1 trillion. The increase or decrease in growth of local revenue is influenced by the amount and type of tax, levies collected by local governments and the lack of incentives for the management apparatus to carry out tax collection and levies. This study uses spline regression analysis because the data of the Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) in Central Sulawesi in 2018 does not have a pattern so that it fits perfectly with that method. Then after processing the data obtained the results of spline nonparametric regression modeling using the optimal knots point obtained from the minimum GCV value. The best spline nonparametric regression model is written as follow . It can be concluded that in Central Sulawesi in 2018 the lowest Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) value was Banggai Laut Regency with 21,776 billion rupiahs and the highest Local Own-source Revenue (LOR) value was Palu City at 267,402 billion rupiahs.

Estimation of nonstationary nonparametric regression model with multiplicative structure

This paper presents a multiplicative nonstationary nonparametric regression model which allows for a broad class of nonstationary processes. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to uncover the conditional mean function and establish uniform convergence rates and asymptotic normality of our estimators. The new model can also be seen as a dimension-reduction technique for a general two-dimensional time-varying nonparametric regression model, which is especially useful in small samples and for estimating explicitly multiplicative structural models. We consider two applications: estimating a pricing equation for the US aggregate economy to model consumption growth, and estimating the shape of the monthly risk premium for S&P 500 Index data.

The Estimation of Residual Variance in Nonparametric Regression

Given a nonparametric regression model Yi = g(xi) + ei, i = 1, 2, …, n, where Y is a dependent variable, x is an independent variable, g is an unknown function and e is an error assumed to be an independent, identical, and is distributed with mean 0 and variance σ2. In this research Rice estimator is used to determine the biased value of a residual variance estimator. The Rice estimator is given as follows: . The biased value of residual variance estimator of the Rice method is: , where and. Using the Rice estimator, the Tong-Wang residual variance estimator is obtained, that is: , Where , , , , , k = 1, 2, … , m. Based upon the data simulation by considering the exponential, arithmetical, and trigonometrical models, it is found that the MSE value of the Tong-Wang estimator tends to be less compared to those of the Rice estimator as well as the GSJ (Gasser, Sroka, and Jennen) estimator.

Mixed Spline Smoothing and Kernel Estimator in Biresponse Nonparametric Regression

Mixed estimators in nonparametric regression have been developed in models with one response. The biresponse cases with different patterns among predictor variables that tend to be mixed estimators are often encountered. Therefore, in this article, we propose a biresponse nonparametric regression model with mixed spline smoothing and kernel estimators. This mixed estimator is suitable for modeling biresponse data with several patterns (response vs. predictors) that tend to change at certain subintervals such as the spline smoothing pattern, and other patterns that tend to be random are commonly modeled using kernel regression. The mixed estimator is obtained through two-stage estimation, i.e., penalized weighted least square (PWLS) and weighted least square (WLS). Furthermore, the proposed biresponse modeling with mixed estimators is validated using simulation data. This estimator is also applied to the percentage of the poor population and human development index data. The results show that the proposed model can be appropriately implemented and gives satisfactory results.