The most fundamental questions in microbial ecology concern the diversity and variability of communities. Their composition varies widely across space and time, as it is determined by a non-trivial combination of stochastic and deterministic processes. The interplay between non-linear community dynamics and environmental fluctuations determines the rich statistical structure of community variability, with both rapid temporal dynamics fluctuations and non-trivial correlations across habitats. Here we analyze long time-series of gut microbiome and compare intra- and inter-community dissimilarity. Under a macroecological framework we characterize their statistical properties. We show that most taxa have large but stationary fluctuations over time, while a minority is characterized by quick changes of average abundance which cluster in time, suggesting the presence of alternative stable states. We disentangle inter-individual variability in a major stochastic component and a deterministic one, the latter recapitulated by differences in the carrying capacities of taxa. Finally, we develop a model which includes environmental fluctuations and alternative stable states. This model quantitatively predicts the statistical properties of both intra- and inter-individual community variability, therefore summarizing variation in a unique macroecological framework.
A macroecological description of alternative stable states reproduces intra- and inter-host variability of gut microbiome
