Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season With 500‐hPa Temperature

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. W. Miller ◽  
J. C. Trepanier
Author(s):  
Momen A. Wishahy ◽  
Bob A. Weinzapfel ◽  
Dante C. Diaz ◽  
Devin J. Eyre

A study was carried out to determine the probability of avoiding severe weather conditions generated by historical hurricanes to improve the management of dynamically-positioned (DP) drilling vessels operating in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season. Rather than staying on location during an approaching hurricane, DP drilling vessels secure well operations, pull riser, and evade the hurricane. The study considers several factors affecting the measure of success including inherent errors in forecasting hurricane strength, track and speed of advance; types and speeds of vessels; vessel sensitivity to wind and wave conditions; evasion time and direction of evasion; location of the drilling site relative to the hurricane track; and escape route water depth limitations. The results provide a statistical basis for the required evasion time and would be part of the Hurricane Evacuation Plan that stakeholders agree upon to achieve acceptable risk. The simulations could also be used in a training program for captains and considered in the tactical decision-making process regarding when to leave the site and in which direction to go.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Armstrong‐Altrin ◽  
Mayla A. Ramos‐Vázquez ◽  
Nadia Y. Hermenegildo‐Ruiz ◽  
Jayagopal Madhavaraju

Nature ◽  
2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Witze
Keyword(s):  

2014 ◽  
Vol 505 ◽  
pp. 209-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Zhang ◽  
DM Mason ◽  
CA Stow ◽  
AT Adamack ◽  
SB Brandt ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 644 ◽  
pp. 33-45
Author(s):  
JM Hill ◽  
PS Petraitis ◽  
KL Heck

Salt marshes face chronic anthropogenic impacts such as relative sea level rise and eutrophication, as well as acute disturbances from tropical storms that can affect the productivity of these important communities. However, it is not well understood how marshes already subjected to eutrophication and sea level rise will respond to added effects of episodic storms such as hurricanes. We examined the interactive effects of nutrient addition, sea level rise, and a hurricane on the growth, biomass accumulation, and resilience of the saltmarsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora in the Gulf of Mexico. In a microtidal marsh, we manipulated nutrient levels and submergence using marsh organs in which cordgrasses were planted at differing intertidal elevations and measured the impacts of Hurricane Isaac, which occurred during the experiment. Prior to the hurricane, grasses at intermediate and high elevations increased in abundance. After the hurricane, all treatments lost approximately 50% of their shoots, demonstrating that added nutrients and elevation did not provide resistance to hurricane disturbance. At the end of the experiment, only the highest elevations had been resilient to the hurricane, with increased above- and belowground growth. Added nutrients provided a modest increase in above- and belowground growth, but only at the highest elevations, suggesting that only elevation will enhance resilience to hurricane disturbance. These results empirically demonstrate that S. alterniflora in microtidal locations already subjected to submergence stress is less able to recover from storm disturbance and suggests we may be underestimating the loss of northern Gulf Coast marshes due to relative sea level rise.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document