Do Causes or Effects Dominate Categorization Decisions? A Test of a Causal Model Theory of Categorization

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bob Rehder
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Model

A Causal Model Theory of the Meaning ofCause,Enable, andPrevent

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Sloman ◽  
Aron K. Barbey ◽  
Jared M. Hotaling
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Model

Causal Models and Conditional Reasoning

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Oaksford ◽  
Nick Chater
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Recent Model ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Conditional Reasoning ◽  
Cognitive System ◽  
Markov Condition ◽  
Bayes Nets ◽  
Causal Bayes Nets ◽  
Conditional Statements

There are deep intuitions that the meaning of conditional statements relate to probabilistic law-like dependencies. In this chapter it is argued that these intuitions can be captured by representing conditionals in causal Bayes nets (CBNs) and that this conjecture is theoretically productive. This proposal is borne out in a variety of results. First, causal considerations can provide a unified account of abstract and causal conditional reasoning. Second, a recent model (Fernbach & Erb, 2013) can be extended to the explicit causal conditional reasoning paradigm (Byrne, 1989), making some novel predictions on the way. Third, when embedded in the broader cognitive system involved in reasoning, causal model theory can provide a novel explanation for apparent violations of the Markov condition in causal conditional reasoning (Ali et al, 2011). Alternative explanations are also considered (see, Rehder, 2014a) with respect to this evidence. While further work is required, the chapter concludes that the conjecture that conditional reasoning is underpinned by representations and processes similar to CBNs is indeed a productive line of research.

Hindsight Bias and the Activation of Counterfactual Mind-Sets

2008 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 342-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Nestler ◽  
Gernot von Collani
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Priming Effect ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Hindsight Bias ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Causal Strength

Previous research has shown that conditional counterfactuals are positively related to the magnitude of creeping determinism. Unlike previous experiments which show this increased hindsight bias to occur after exceptional antecedents, we investigated another possible factor, namely a prior activation of a counterfactual mind-set. We investigated our prediction using a hypothetical scenario. Prior to reading the hindsight scenario some participants were asked to solve a scrambled-sentence test including conditional counterfactual sentences. Results of two experiments were consistent with our predictions: Participants that solved the scrambled-sentence test perceived the outcome to be more inevitable than participants in a no-outcome control condition and participants in a no-prime control condition. Furthermore, we found that this increase in creeping determinism was mediated by the perceived causal strength of the target antecedent for the occurrence of the outcome, and that the priming-effect did not occur when an unconditional counterfactual mind-set was activated before. The results are interpreted as supporting a causal-model theory of the hindsight bias.

Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: A causal model theory

Cognition ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 131 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Wiegmann ◽  
Michael R. Waldmann
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Moral Dilemmas ◽  
Transfer Effects

A quantitative causal model theory of conditional reasoning.

2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 1327-1343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Fernbach ◽  
Christopher D. Erb
Keyword(s):  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Conditional Reasoning

Hindsight Bias and Causal Attribution

2008 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 182-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Nestler ◽  
Hartmut Blank ◽  
Gernot von Collani
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Model Theory ◽  
Causal Attributions ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Causal Attribution ◽  
Hindsight Bias ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
New Hypothesis ◽  
Covariation Analysis

Hindsight bias describes characteristic changes in the perceptions of events or facts once their outcomes are known. This article focuses on one important facet of this, named creeping determinism, denoting enhanced hindsight perceptions of the inevitability of event outcomes. We suggest a systematic link between the literatures on causal attribution and hindsight bias/creeping determinism and introduce a comprehensive causal model theory (CMT) of creeping determinism. We then distinguish between two alternative versions of CMT, which reflect recent debates in the causal attribution literature. These versions assume, respectively, that individuals make causal attributions by means of covariation analysis or via the discovery of some underlying mechanism. In order to contrast these assumptions, we introduce a new hypothesis concerning the magnitude of creeping determinism, based on the conjunction effect in causal attribution, and we present empirical evidence concerning this hypothesis.

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