Can We Make All Legal Norms into Legal Syllogisms and Why is That Important in Times of Artificial Intelligence?

Background: The term ‘hard cases’ trace back to Herbert Lionel Adolphus Hart who was one of the first legal philosophers who directly used it in his works and Ronald Myles Dworkin to whom the development and establishment of this concept in legal language is linked. Even though these two legal philosophers in one of the most famous - The Hart–Dworkin – legal debate couldn’t agree on certain things, they both agreed that when dealing with hard cases, there is a need to act creatively in order to resolve such a case properly. The division of cases into easy ones and hard ones gradually lost its popularity, even in legal theory, but perhaps it can be resurrected and used these challenging times to help meet the challenges prompted by technology? Methods: This paper analyses the dichotomy of hard and easy cases as well as circumstances relating to the courts’ decision-making processes in such cases. The essay examines whether the solutions proposed by legal positivism (such as applying syllogisms and precedents) are sufficient to deal with easy cases. The paper also examines what factors analysed by legal realists have an impact on judges while making decisions in hard cases (for example, psychological factors, such as hindsight bias, intuition, hunches, the anchor effect, laziness, unwillingness to take responsibility, or the gambler’s fallacy, as well as social factors, like upbringing, life experience, social relations, gender, age, education, etc.). Given that the article is theoretical in nature, logical, systemic, teleological methods dominate. Both descriptive method and scientific research method were used as well. Results and Conclusions: The author concludes that easy cases should eventually be delegated to artificial intelligence to resolve, whereas hard cases will remain in the competence of human judges, at least until technological development reaches a certain level.

Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.

Momentary versus Retrospective Sexual Consent Perceptions

Perceiving potential indicators of a person’s willingness is an integral component of sexual consent. Preliminary qualitative evidence using vignettes suggested that consent perceptions can change over the course of a sexual scenario. In the present study, we extended previous research by directly comparing momentary and retrospective sexual consent perceptions using a quantitative study design. Employing a staggered vignette protocol, we examined participants’ (n = 962; 72.0% female) momentary perceptions of fictional characters’ sexual consent and compared them with participants’ retrospective perceptions of the characters’ consent. We hypothesized that participants would demonstrate a hindsight bias in that they would retrospectively indicate they thought the fictional characters were first willing to engage in sexual behavior earlier than when they did momentarily. We found that differences in participants’ momentary versus retrospective perceptions of characters’ sexual consent varied by the type of behavior. As we expected, participants demonstrated a hindsight bias for making out. Contrary to our hypothesis, participants were hesitant to retrospectively report that the characters were willing to engage in the other sexual behaviors (e.g., oral, vaginal, anal sex) at a point earlier than their momentary perceptions. That momentary and retrospective sexual consent perceptions significantly differ corroborates previous recommendations that sexual consent be conceptualized as an ongoing process.

Sources for political conversations in Late Republican Rome

Chapter 2 considers Cicero’s letters, which are the main source of this book. These letters are exceptional since they were largely written shortly after conversations took place and, although they underwent several processes of selection throughout their transmission, they were not rewritten and are deprived of hindsight bias. Thus, they provide us with an insider’s perspective on conversations and politics, transmitting the political uncertainty of the period. This contrasts with how later historians, from Nicolaus of Damascus onwards, depicted political conversations during the Roman Republic, paying attention to other elements and markers, such as non-verbal gestures, instead of focusing (as Cicero did) on the impressions from conversations, feelings, and speculations about the future.

856 Mortality and Morbidity Meetings in Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery: Hindsight is 20/20

Aim Mortality and Morbidity (M&M) meetings form a critical part of clinical governance however they often suffer from hindsight bias and lack objectivity. To combat this, Kahoot surveys were disseminated to senior clinicians prior to M&M meetings. Each case to be discussed is presented as a survey item with the clinical and radiographic information that was available to the performing surgeon pre-operatively and participants are asked to detail their ideal treatment. The aims of this study were to determine if the introduction of Kahoot surveys prior to M&M meetings improves the objectivity of the discussions and reduces the effects of hindsight bias. Method A 12-item questionnaire relating to the introduction and utility of Kahoot surveys prior to M&M discussions was distributed to all registrars and consultants within our department. Result An 80% response rate was obtained (16/20 responses). Prior to the introduction of Kahoot surveys, 62.6% of surgeons felt case discussions were clouded by the benefit of hindsight. Comparatively, 68.8% indicated the use of pre-M&M surveys reduced the effects of hindsight bias. 56.3% of participants expressed the objectivity of case discussions improved and 50% felt the quality of feedback improved. Conclusions The use of Kahoot surveys prior to M&M meetings demonstrates that withholding the case outcome until each clinician has given their own opinion reduces the effect of hindsight bias. The surveys utilise the Bolam Test, thereby enabling us to determine the correct error classifications with greater objectivity. Furthermore, they facilitate a higher quality of discussion and feedback.

The Behavioural Aspects of Financial Literacy

In this paper, we investigate the contribution of behavioural characteristics to the financial literacy of UAE residents after controlling for demographic factors. Specifically, we test the relationship between financial literacy and behavioural biases such as representativeness, self-serving, overconfidence, loss aversion, and hindsight bias. Using data collected through survey questionnaires, we apply the methodology developed by the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to compute financial literacy scores. Our overall results show that all behavioural biases except for overconfidence bias are positively related to financial literacy. Furthermore, some biases exhibit a stronger quantitative relationship with financial literacy than others. For example, hindsight bias displays the strongest link to financial literacy, followed by self-serving bias. The weakest but still statistically significant effect is loss aversion bias. Although biases, in general, have negative connotations, behavioural biases appear to be related to higher levels of financial literacy.

Isn’t That a Coincidence?

Coincidences are often so striking that they tempt us into trying to find meaning in what is random. But because any coincidence is only observed after the fact, they are subject to hindsight bias, and are very difficult to properly analyse in a rigorous way. Jung and Koestler embraced the idea of synchronicity, an idea that is now discredited. This chapter presents an approach to analysing coincidences, and concludes with the idea of the law of very large numbers, which says that, given enough opportunities, even the most improbable events will eventually happen.