scholarly journals A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houssine Zine ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Delfim F.M. Torres ◽  
...  

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

2020 ◽  
pp. 074391562098384
Author(s):  
Norah Campbell ◽  
Sarah Browne ◽  
Marius Claudy ◽  
Melissa Mialon ◽  
Hercberg Serge ◽  
...  

Ultra-processed food manufacturers have proposed that product reformulation should be a key strategy to tackle obesity. In determining the impact of reformulation on population dietary behaviours, policy makers are often dependant on data provided by these manufacturers. Where such data are “gifted” to regulators there may be an implicit expectation of reciprocity that adversely influences nutrition policies. We sought to assess Europe’s industry-led reformulation strategy in five countries deploying critical policy studies as an approach. We found that interim results on industry-led food reformulation did not meet their targets. Information asymmetries exist between food industry and policy makers: the latter are not privy to marketing intelligence and must instead rely on data that are voluntarily donated by food industry actors. These data represent a distorted snippet of the marketing intelligence system from whence they came. Because these data indeed bear all the hallmarks of a gift, regulatory and public health authorities operate within a gift economy. The implications of this “data gift economy” are strategic delay and goal-setting when the field is not visible. Ultimately, this could diminish the implementation of public health nutrition policies that are contrary to the commercial interests of ultra-processed food producers.


1924 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 619-620
Author(s):  
Louis I. Harris

1923 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 419-421
Author(s):  
Allen W. Freeman

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 83S-87S ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne M. Hewitt ◽  
Susan S. Spencer ◽  
Rameshsharma Ramloll ◽  
Heidi Trotta

Developed by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2002, the Crisis Emergency and Risk Communication (CERC) training module is a nationally and internationally recognized communication model. With the looming threat of a pandemic and the potential for a protracted ongoing siege, a valuable opportunity exists to introduce crisis and emergency preparedness communication best practices to a new population—health care managers and administrators. The CERC toolkit and resources, provide an easy, turn-key solution and a validated template for educators who are not directly involved in public health education but desire to share this content. In this example, graduate students enrolled in an Master of Health Administration program, used a Play2Train scenario, located in the virtual learning environment of SecondLife (2007), to incorporate concepts from the CERC model. By applying the CERC best practices in a real-time virtual learning scenario, students learned collaboration and the leadership competencies necessary to help implement Joint Commission on Accreditation of Health Organizations emergency communication protocols and community collaboration requirements. By expanding the impact of the CERC model and developing unified risk communication responses and information sharing, all health professionals can enhance the effectiveness of their emergency preparedness plans so that the public can be better served.


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