scholarly journals PUBLIC HEALTH ADMINISTRATION

1923 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 419-421
Author(s):  
Allen W. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Public Health Administration

scholarly journals A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houssine Zine ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Delfim F.M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Public Health Administration ◽  
Additional Degree ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Stochastic Time ◽  
Delayed Model

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

scholarly journals PUBLIC HEALTH ADMINISTRATION

1924 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 619-620
Author(s):  
Louis I. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Public Health Administration
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