The supply and demand of ecosystem services are affected by land use. Only a few studies have conducted in-depth quantitative analyses. This study adopted the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research area. The CLUMondo model was adopted to infer the land-use pattern under protection, development, and natural scenarios in 2035. Moreover, the InVEST model was utilized to evaluate carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation under multiple land-use patterns. The production possibility frontier was drawn to visualize the trade-off relationship further. The trade-off intensity index was calculated to quantify the magnitude of the trade-off. (1) Under the development scenario, the accelerated expansion of urbanized land will occupy a large amount of arable and forest land, which should be planned and controlled. (2) The trade-off and synergistic relationships could be transformed under the different land-use scenarios. (3) The production possibility frontier curve for each ecosystem service trade-off and the optimal value of the trade-off configuration were plotted for the different scenarios. The trade-off intensity of ecosystem services was also calculated. This study combined ecosystem services with land-use regulations and revealed the link between ecosystem services and regional land-use pattern change. The aim is to provide a reference for the synergistic progress of the ecological economy in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.
The Production Possibility Frontier under Strong Input-Generated Externalities