It takes two: how Eurosceptic public opinion and party divisions influence party positions

This chapter examines the long-run relationship between public opinion, party politics, and the welfare state. It argues that when large parties receive a clear signal concerning the median voter’s position on the welfare state, vote-seeking motivations dominate and the large parties in the party system converge on the position of the median voter. When the position of the median voter is more difficult to discern, however, policy-seeking motivations dominate, and party positions diverge. This argument implies that the effects of government partisanship on welfare state policy are more ambiguous than generally understood. The countries covered in the chapter are Denmark, France, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom (going back to the 1960s). The number of observations is (necessarily) limited, but the diverse cases illustrate a common electoral dynamic centered around the position of the median voter.

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The Party Politics of Economic Reform: Public Opinion, Party Positions and Partisan Cleavages

The Politics of Economic Reform in Germany ◽

10.4324/9781315879055-13 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 142-168

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Economic Reform ◽

Party Politics ◽

Party Positions

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Party Type and the Impact of Public Opinion on Party Positions with Respect to European Integration

Korean Political Science Review ◽

10.18854/kpsr.2013.47.1.010 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 47 (1) ◽

pp. 205-220

Author(s):

정한범

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

European Integration ◽

Party Positions ◽

The Impact

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Euroscepticism and Conservative Electoral Support: How an Asset Became a Liability

British Journal of Political Science ◽

10.1017/s0007123498000258 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 573-590 ◽

Cited By ~ 78

Author(s):

GEOFFREY EVANS

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

European Integration ◽

Panel Study ◽

Public Support ◽

Conservative Party ◽

The Other ◽

Party Positions ◽

Electoral Support ◽

The Impact

This article uses the British Election Panel Study to assess the impact of voters' and party positions vis-à-vis European integration on Conservative electoral support between 1992 and 1996. Over this period levels of public support for European integration declined markedly, so that by 1996 the Conservative party was even closer to aggregate public opinion, when compared with its main competitors, than it had been at the time of the 1992 election. However, an analysis of the proximity between individuals' positions on integration and the positions they then attributed to the parties indicates that Conservative divisions over Europe helped turn this potential electoral asset into a liability, leaving the party further from individual voters' own positions than were either of the other two main political contenders. Moreover, as issue proximity on integration predicts voting even when past vote and proximity on other issues are controlled for, it is likely that the European question will have resulted in electoral costs rather than the benefits it could have produced. One implication of these findings is that if the Conservatives hope to do well on this issue they will need to adopt a consistent Eurosceptic line, but such a strategy is unlikely to be easily maintained.

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Not so Responsive after all: European Parties do not Respond to Public Opinion Shifts across Multiple Issue Dimensions

10.31235/osf.io/4bv5u ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Tom O'Grady ◽

Tarik Abou-Chadi

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Spatial Models ◽

Political Conflict ◽

Policy Outcomes ◽

Policy Positions ◽

State Involvement ◽

Party Positions ◽

Dimensional Measure ◽

European Parties ◽

Issue Dimensions

Many studies have found that European parties change their policy positions in response to changes in public opinion. This is both theoretically and normatively appealing, suggesting that European party politics operates in a way that is consistent with spatial models. Nonetheless, virtually all previous studies are based on a single, uni-dimensional measure of public opinion: left-right self-placement from the Eurobarometer surveys. This measure has a number of flaws, including the fact that political conflict in Europe now occurs across multiple issue dimensions beyond the classic divide on state involvement in the economy. We use new measures of Europeans' ideological positions across four different issue dimensions and twenty-six countries from 1981-2016, together with data on parties' policy positions from their manifestos, to re-evaluate findings on responsiveness. Across many different model specifications, samples and outcome measures, we find virtually no evidence that European political parties respond to public opinion on any issue dimension. Our findings suggest that scholars may require better measures of party positions, more nuanced theories of responsiveness (for example to sub-groups, or across longer time horizons), or may need to re-focus their attention towards responsiveness via policy outcomes rather than parties' policy commitments.

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The party politics of economic reform: Public opinion, party positions and partisan cleavages

German Politics ◽

10.1080/09644000500154573 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 248-274 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Stephen Padgett

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Economic Reform ◽

Party Politics ◽

Party Positions

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Not so responsive after all: European parties do not respond to public opinion shifts across multiple issue dimensions

Research & Politics ◽

10.1177/2053168019891380 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 205316801989138

Author(s):

Tom O’Grady ◽

Tarik Abou-Chadi

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Spatial Models ◽

Political Conflict ◽

Policy Outcomes ◽

Policy Positions ◽

State Involvement ◽

Party Positions ◽

Dimensional Measure ◽

European Parties ◽

Issue Dimensions

Many studies have found that European parties change their policy positions in response to changes in public opinion. This is both theoretically and normatively appealing, suggesting that European party politics operates in a way that is consistent with spatial models. Nonetheless, virtually all previous studies are based on a single, uni-dimensional measure of public opinion: left–right self-placement from the Eurobarometer surveys. This measure has a number of flaws, including the fact that political conflict in Europe now occurs across multiple issue dimensions beyond the classic divide on state involvement in the economy. We used new measures of Europeans’ ideological positions across four different issue dimensions and 26 countries from 1981–2016, together with data on parties’ policy positions from their manifestos, to re-evaluate findings on responsiveness. Across many different model specifications, samples and outcome measures, we found virtually no evidence that European political parties respond to public opinion on any issue dimension. Our findings suggest that scholars may require better measures of party positions, more nuanced theories of responsiveness (for example to sub-groups, or across longer time horizons), or may need to refocus their attention towards responsiveness via policy outcomes rather than parties’ policy commitments.

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